Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Notes:

The short-term deterioration we discussed last week has continued to unfold. Markets remain below declining 5-day moving averages, leadership is weakening, and defensive areas are beginning to outperform. While this pullback remains relatively modest in the context of the larger advance from the March lows, the message from price remains the same: slow down, stay selective, and respect risk until strength returns.

Note: There will be no Weekly Charts video this Saturday as we’ll be celebrating my oldest son’s wedding. We’ll pick things back up early next week.

Key Takeaways

• Major indices remain below declining 5-day moving averages.

• Lower lows and lower highs continue across the market roadmap.

• SPY and QQQ are approaching key support near rising 50-day moving averages and anchored VWAPs from the March lows.

• Recent DeMark 9 sell signals in SPY, QQQ, and SOXX have proven meaningful.

• Semiconductors, software, MAG-7, and growth stocks continue to weaken.

• Consumer staples, healthcare, and value stocks are showing relative strength.

• Gold and silver have broken below their 200-day moving averages.

• Financials remain unable to reclaim a declining 200-day moving average.

• Current evidence favors caution rather than aggressive long exposure.

• Focus remains on risk management until the roadmap improves.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

This week’s Weekly Charts video reviews Friday’s sharp decline through the lens of process, not prediction. We look at the clues that were already developing beneath the surface: Bitcoin weakness, narrowing leadership, RSI divergence in QQQ, fewer long setups, and pressure in speculative leadership themes like URA, QTUM, AIQ, SOXX, and BLOK.

The lesson is simple:

—The goal is not to predict selloffs.
—The goal is to recognize when the evidence begins to change.

Summary:

• Last week’s message was continued strength, but several clues were developing beneath the surface.

• QQQ showed RSI divergence as price made new highs without momentum confirmation.

• Bitcoin and crypto-related themes weakened before the major indices broke lower.

• Speculative leadership groups like URA, QTUM, AIQ, $SOXX, and BLOK saw sharp reversals.

• Breadth did not collapse, which keeps this in the category of a short-term shift rather than major trend damage.

• The lesson: our job is not to predict. It is to evaluate evidence and adjust risk as the market’s message changes.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

The market is showing its first meaningful signs of slowing after several weeks of persistent strength.

Nothing suggests a major change in trend at this point, but the short-term character has shifted as more indices slip below their 5-day moving averages and leadership begins to narrow.

In today’s update, I review the major indices, sector leadership, Bitcoin, Financials, Semiconductors, and the Mag 7 to identify the levels that matter most if this pullback continues.

Show Notes:

• Major indices taking a short-term breather after a strong advance

• SPY, DIA, and IWM now below their 5-day moving averages

• QQQ remains the strongest of the major indices

• Daily charts still show healthy longer-term uptrends

• Semiconductors continue to lead despite recent volatility

• Financials failing to confirm the broader market strength

• Mag 7 momentum fading as several names test key support levels

• Bitcoin breaks below recent AVWAP support and weakens further

• Energy remains rangebound with no clear directional resolution

• Focus remains on risk management, support levels, and individual position management

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Get the Complete Trading Edge now at Alphatrends - the best value ever offered - available now for a short time.

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Summary

Markets continue to show resilience with major indexes holding above rising trend measures and participation remaining healthy beneath the surface.

Growth stocks continue to lead, consumer discretionary remains strong, and equal-weight indexes are showing encouraging follow-through. Software has staged an impressive recovery, biotech appears constructive, and financials remain a potential source of future leadership if they can finally break higher.

While Bitcoin remains under pressure and some sectors are consolidating recent gains, breadth indicators, bullish percent indexes, and relative strength relationships continue to support the broader bullish case.

The market may be extended in places, but the evidence currently points toward rotation and consolidation rather than meaningful deterioration.

Show Notes

• Major indexes remain above rising longer-term trend measures.

• Growth continues to outperform value.

• Consumer discretionary leadership remains intact.

• Equal-weight indexes continue improving participation.

• Financials remain a key area to watch for a potential breakout.

• Software and biotech are showing improving relative strength.

• Bitcoin remains under pressure below key moving averages.

• Volatility remains subdued despite concerns about market risk.

• Breadth indicators continue holding up well.

• No significant deterioration evident beneath the surface of the market.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Memorial Day Special at Alphatrends

Trading Adventures subscribers heard the news here first.

While the broader announcement is now making its way across the trading world, many of you already knew months ago that I officially joined Alphatrends and began working alongside Brian Shannon.

Now, another major addition has joined the effort with the inclusion of PhD trading psychologist Dr. Andrew Menaker.

This is the most robust Alphatrends educational bundle offered to date.

Most traders do not fail because they lack indicators or market opinions. They struggle with execution, risk management, consistency, emotional decision-making, and adapting to changing conditions. That broader perspective is what makes this offering so compelling.

You now have:

• Brian’s decades of expertise in market structure, anchored VWAP, and risk management

• My real-world application, trade management, and multi-timeframe trading perspective

• Dr. Menaker’s work on psychology, performance, emotional control, and decision-making under pressure

That combination addresses an enormous portion of what traders actually struggle with:

The Memorial Day sale is now live and includes discounted pricing across the Alphatrends offerings.

This offer gives traders access to the most complete trading education and development package we’ve ever assembled — at an exceptional value.

Get it here:

👉 Alphatrends Memorial Day Bundle

As always, I appreciate all of you who continue to support Trading Adventures and follow my work. I’m excited about what we’re building and look forward to continuing to share charts, lessons, market observations, and real-world trading insights along the way.

– Andy

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Markets continue to show impressive resilience as broad participation, strong trend structure, and improving equal-weight confirmation keep the weight of the evidence pointed higher. This week’s update reviews the major indices, breadth, rates, commodities, relative strength relationships, and several key sectors as we continue monitoring for early signs of any meaningful change in character.

Show Notes

• Major indices continue to trend higher with rising and properly aligned moving averages

• SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all remain above rising 4-week averages

• Equal-weight indices confirm strength with fresh breakouts

A couple weeks ago in the CMT Association’s Market Mosaic Daily newsletter, I noted this rejection near prior highs and explained why a breakout in the equal-weight indices would be another important confirmation of broad market strength.

One More Piece of Confirmation

• Small caps continue improving and pushing toward new highs

• 30-year yields remain a key chart to monitor after another failed breakout attempt

• High-yield bonds continue lagging stocks and remain mixed

• Semiconductors remain leadership

• Financials attempting to improve and potentially rejoin the rally

• Software stabilizing despite continued AI concerns

• Gold consolidating near key support and the rising 40-week moving average

• Crude oil rejected once again near major supply

• Bitcoin rejected at anchored VWAP resistance and testing the 10-week moving average

• Relative strength relationships remain broadly risk-on

Relative strength comes in many forms — RSI, intermarket relationships, and comparative performance versus the broader market. I recently revisited that topic in more detail here:

Relative Strength Depends On The Question

• Breadth measures remain healthy overall without major warning signals

If you’re unfamiliar with Bullish Percent Indexes and how they work, I covered the basics in this Chart School article:

The Bullish Percent Index: A Technician’s View of Participation

• Multi-timeframe structure still favors higher prices until proven otherwise

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Publishing has been a little lighter recently between family events and commitments with Alphatrends, but I wanted to jump in with a shorter midweek market update and run through some of the key areas I’m watching here.

A decent bounce today across the indices with several important groups continuing to defend rising intermediate-term trends. We’ll take a quick look at the major indices, rates, crude oil, Bitcoin, semiconductors, software, financials, and a few other areas showing notable movement.

Show Notes:

• Indices bounced back above their 5-day moving averages

• Only the Dow now has a rising 5-day MA

• Several key areas continue defending rising 20-day moving averages

• Semis, software, and MAG-7 names showed improvement after recent weakness

• Financials remain rangebound below key anchored VWAP resistance

• Energy pulled back with crude oil reversing lower

• Bitcoin continues defending its rising 50-day moving average

• 30-year yields eased back from recent highs

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

And for anyone who missed last week’s Market Mosaic Daily series with the CMT Association, I referenced several of those charts again in today’s update. You can read those articles by clicking this link and scrolling down to my entries from May 4 through May 8.

https://content.cmtassociation.org/market-mosaic

Show Notes:

• SPY and QQQ testing — and holding — rising short-term moving averages

• DeMARK 9 setups appearing after extended momentum runs

• Dow and small caps lagging slightly, but still trending higher

• Bitcoin and crypto testing major overhead supply zones

• Bonds weakening while stocks continue to ignore rising yields

• Commodities, silver, and crude oil continuing to firm up

• Equal-weight participation and what it says about breadth

• Early relative weakness in financials and consumer discretionary

• Semiconductors and mega-cap tech still carrying leadership

• Why the rising 5-day moving average remains the key roadmap from here

Final Take

Today looked more like moderation than deterioration.

After such a sharp advance, some digestion and rotation beneath the surface is normal. The important thing right now is that buyers continue defending the short-term trend structure, particularly in the large-cap indices.

If that changes, the first clue will likely come from price beginning to lose and stay below rising 5-day moving averages.

Until then, buyer’s are in control.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Quick heads up.

This week, I’ll be publishing daily in the CMT Association’s Market Mosaic Daily newsletter.

It runs Monday through Friday, with a new piece out each day.

What to expect:

• Market-focused breakdowns using the same framework you’re used to

• Big-picture context and trend alignment

• A couple of deeper, educational pieces mixed in during the week

Where to read:

• Articles are published daily here (about halfway down the page):
  👉 https://content.cmtassociation.org/hub/research

• Want them delivered to your inbox? Subscribe here:
  👉 https://content.cmtassociation.org/market-mosaic-register

This is a good chance to step back and look at the market through a slightly wider lens—same process, just a bigger stage.

I’ll be back later this week and this weekend with the usual 📈Weekly Charts📉 and updates.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. Let price lead.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Trend Context

  • SPY and QQQ holding above rising 5-day MAs → short-term trend intact

  • IWM and Dow lagging below declining 5-day → mixed participation

• Market Character

  • Consolidation after a strong multi-week run

  • Pullbacks are shallow and short-lived

  • Market correcting by time, not price → constructive

• Key Technical Takeaways

  • S&P holding 8-day MA and prior breakout area (polarity in play)

  • QQQ showing minor exhaustion signals, but nothing decisive

  • Dow forming bullish consolidation near short-term averages

  • IWM finding buyers at prior key levels

• Intermarket Notes

  • Bitcoin facing resistance but not breaking down

  • Volatility continues to compress

  • Crude rising while equities pause (inverse behavior worth noting)

  • Gold stuck in a messy range

• Big Picture

  • Nothing technically broken

  • Trend remains intact

  • Market is pausing, not reversing

• Catalysts Ahead

  • FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

  • Core PCE, jobless claims (Thursday)

  • Heavy earnings: GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META, AAPL

  • Additional names across sectors reporting

• Key Message

  • This is a risk management environment, not a prediction environment

  • Traders should be aware of earnings exposure and binary events

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Markets continued higher this week, but momentum cooled as many sectors and asset classes printed inside candles. That is not a bearish development by itself. After a fast advance, the market appears to be correcting through time rather than price.

SPY and QQQ remain strong, semiconductors and MAG7 continue to lead, and Bitcoin is improving. Breadth backed off slightly, but remains constructive. The Dow is the one major index showing some caution, with lower highs and lower lows below a declining 5-day moving average.

Key Takeaways

• SPY and QQQ pushed to new highs

• Many areas printed inside weeks: Dow, crude, gold, silver, XBI, XLF, XLE

• Semiconductors remain the strongest leadership group

• MAG7 remains strong, with Amazon especially impressive

• Breadth cooled slightly, but remains above key participation levels

• Bitcoin improved and is back above important reference levels

• Dow is the weakest of the major index charts

• Current action looks like digestion, not deterioration

Bottom Line

After a major advance, the market paused instead of pulling back sharply.

Buyers did not press, but they also did not give up control. The main trend remains higher, but some rest, consolidation, or a test of rising short-term moving averages would be normal.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Market remains in an uptrend, but momentum is slowing

• Continued time correction — 5+ days of sideways action

• Repeated tests of the rising 5-day MA (now being lost intraday)

• SPY:

  • Resistance ~712–713

  • Watching downside reference ~694–695

  • Still extended vs. 21-day

• QQQ:

  • Holding above rising 5-day

  • Slight loss of momentum

• Dow / IWM:

  • Back into prior ranges

  • Potential for deeper tests as MAs catch up

• Bitcoin:

  • Strong relative position

  • Above key MAs and YTD AVWAP

• Crude Oil:

  • Pushing higher, testing key levels near 100

• Leadership:

  • Semiconductors remain strong

  • MAG7 holding up well

• Weak spots:

  • Financials rejected at 200-day MA

• Key takeaway:

  • Not breaking down — just losing upside momentum

  • Watching for:

    • Continued sideways action

    • Or pullback into key levels

• Tactical focus:

  • Manage risk

  • Trail stops

  • Let structure develop

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Market remains in a strong uptrend, but conditions are extended

• First test of the rising 5-day moving average since April 7

• Light volume persists across April — notable but not a signal

• SPY up ~13 sessions off the lows → stretched above short-term averages

• Gap between price and 21-day MA suggests potential for time or price correction

• Short-term focus:

  • 5-day MA = immediate trend reference

  • Shorter timeframes = better risk management

• Key levels:

  • SPY potential pullback zone ~695

  • Watch for consolidation into prior structure

• Sector notes:

  • Semiconductors remain strong (leadership intact)

  • Energy firming with oil strength

  • Software showing indecision near resistance

  • Financials stalling at 200-day MA

• Individual focus:

  • Tesla earnings → binary event risk

• Tactical approach:

  • Don’t chase extended price

  • Respect trailing stops

  • Let pullbacks create opportunity

• Bottom line:

  • Trend intact

  • Conditions less forgiving

  • Focus on structure and risk

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Markets didn’t just bounce—they followed through and broke out.

After weeks of tracking a steady decline, then a bounce and confirmation phase, we now have a completed sequence: higher lows, higher highs, and expanding participation. Major indices are back at new weekly closing highs, leadership remains strong, and what looked like overhead supply was quickly absorbed.

This is no longer a countertrend move. It’s a trend attempt.

The question now shifts from “is this real?” to “can it sustain?”

Key Takeaways

• New highs across the board

  • SPX, QQQ, and IWM all pushing to or near new weekly closing highs

  • Dow back into a key prior supply zone

• Three weeks of aggressive buying

  • Strong upside continuation each week

  • Minimal pullbacks—buyers in clear control

• Overhead supply absorbed

  • Prior resistance zones cleared quickly

  • No meaningful hesitation at key levels

• Breadth and participation expanding

  • % of stocks above 50-day MA surged from ~20% to ~60%

  • Bullish percent indices back to “bull confirmed”

• Leadership remains strong

  • Semiconductors continue to lead

  • Biotech (XBI) confirms strength and negates prior topping pattern

• Software rebounds sharply

  • Strong bounce, but still needs follow-through

  • One of the last areas to fully confirm

• Risk-on signals returning

  • Growth > value

  • Discretionary > staples

  • High beta outperforming low volatility

• Bitcoin improving

  • Back above key reference levels

  • Still has work to do, but structure is improving

• Bonds quiet, not disruptive

  • Stability helping support equity strength

• Commodities stabilizing

  • Oil volatility easing after extreme ranges

  • Gold and silver consolidating

Bottom Line

The sequence we’ve been tracking is complete.

This is no longer just a bounce—it’s a confirmed trend attempt driven by strong, broad-based buying.

Pullbacks can happen at any time, but for now:

• Buyers are in control

• Participation is expanding

• Trends are moving higher

We buy uptrends and manage risk.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Trend remains firmly higher

  • SPY, QQQ, and IWM at new highs; DIA catching up

  • ~11% move in just over two weeks confirms strong momentum

• Extension is the current condition

  • Price stretched vs. short-term averages

  • Not an ideal location for initiating risk on higher timeframes

• Execution shifts to lower timeframes

  • Use 30-min / 15-min charts for precision

  • Define entries against recent lows, 5-day MA, and AVWAPs

• Risk management becomes the edge

  • Smaller size + tighter levels improves participation

  • Avoid chasing extended price

• Bitcoin showing constructive behavior

  • Holding near YTD AVWAP instead of rejecting

  • Early sign of potential change in behavior

• Intermarket backdrop stable

  • Bonds steady

  • Commodities holding

  • Volatility declining alongside equities

• What this teaches

  • Strong trends don’t eliminate risk—they require better execution

  • When price is extended, timeframe selection becomes a key decision

• Forward lens

  • Market likely to resolve extension via time or price

  • Rising 50-day MAs reinforce underlying trend strength

  • Focus remains: align with trend, define risk, avoid forcing trades

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Show Notes

• Markets advance from decline → bounce → follow-through

• Two strong green weeks lift SPX back above key averages

• DeMARK 9 buy setup leads to meaningful upside response

• Short-term trend improves: higher highs/lows above rising 5-day

• Multi-timeframe alignment begins to build

• IWM shows relative strength, DIA lags near resistance

• Semiconductors lead, software remains weak

• Participation improves, but still not fully confirmed

• Market now in a balance phase with overhead supply

• Focus shifts to continuation vs. failure of this sequence

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

A strong gap higher and follow-through pushed price back above the 50-day moving average and key anchored VWAP levels, confirming the developing pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This is the type of expansion that often follows early improvement in structure.

With price extended after a news-driven move, the focus now shifts to how the market digests gains. Key reference points sit below, including the 5-day moving average and multiple anchored VWAP levels. The trend has improved, but shorter time frames will be critical as volatility and headlines continue to drive two-way movement.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

Markets continue to show early improvement with higher highs and higher lows supported by a rising 5-day moving average. However, price remains below key intermediate and longer-term resistance levels, keeping conditions choppy and headline-driven. This remains a tactical environment where shorter time frames, smaller position sizes, and disciplined risk management are essential.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Show notes:

Markets saw their first meaningful bounce after several weeks of steady selling. While the move was broad-based, it remains a countertrend bounce, not a confirmed reversal.

Most indices are still below key moving averages and resistance levels. Participation improved slightly, but not enough to signal a durable low.

The focus remains the same: let the sequence develop. We need to see higher highs and higher lows above a rising 5-day moving average before getting more constructive.

Key Takeaways

• First bounce after persistent selling

  • Broad, but still a countertrend move

• No structural change (yet)

  • Indices remain below declining intermediate-term averages

  • Bounce stalled near resistance

• Participation improved—but still weak

  • Not washed out before

  • Not strong enough now

• Leadership remains limited

  • Most sectors bounced into resistance

  • Biotech (XBI) a notable exception

• Commodities still strongest trend

  • Energy leading with extreme volatility

  • Crude remains dominant driver

• Intermarket signals mixed

  • Bitcoin weak

  • Bonds stabilizing, not reversing

What to Watch

• Higher highs + higher lows above a rising 5-day MA

• Follow-through early next week vs. failure at resistance

• Expansion in participation and leadership

Bottom Line

• Respect the bounce—but don’t trust it yet

• No urgency on the long side

• The burden of proof remains on the buyers

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Apologies if the audio is a little low. I had to record this “on the go” this morning. Crank the volume, use the closed captioning, and follow along in the show notes.

Summary

The market continues to resolve lower following several weeks of deterioration beneath the surface.

We now have five consecutive weeks of selling in the S&P 500, with repeated closes near the lows and little to no meaningful countertrend bounce. This is not panic or capitulation—rather, it reflects steady, controlled distribution as participants reduce exposure.

What had been a transition phase is now leaning clearly in favor of continued weakness. Participation remains limited, breadth is not yet washed out, and there is still no evidence of demand stepping in with authority.

Until price can reclaim key levels and establish alignment across timeframes, the path of least resistance remains lower. There is no urgency on the long side, and patience continues to be the most important tool.

Weekly Breakdown

Market Environment

• Five consecutive weeks of selling in the S&P 500

• Repeated closes near weekly lows

• No meaningful countertrend rallies

• Persistent, orderly selling—not panic or capitulation

Trend & Structure

• Price below declining short-term moving averages

• Continued sequence of lower highs and lower lows

• Failed bounce attempts and weak upside follow-through

• Trend remains lower across multiple timeframes

Participation & Breadth

• Limited improvement in participation

• % of stocks above 50-day stabilizing slightly, but still weak

• % above 200-day continues to decline

• Not yet at historically washed-out levels

Volatility & Character

• Volatility rising gradually—not a sharp spike

• Confirms controlled, systematic selling rather than emotional liquidation

Intermarket Observations

• Small caps showing relative resilience but still fragile

• Bitcoin remains weak below key levels

• Bonds under pressure alongside equities

• Commodities (especially energy-heavy) remain strong

• Dollar consolidating without clear resolution

Sector & Leadership Notes

• Former leaders (semis, software, MAG-7) showing increased selling pressure

• Defensive positioning remains evident (staples, utilities)

• High beta vs low volatility continues to favor defensive posture

Key Takeaways

• This is controlled distribution, not panic

• The absence of a meaningful bounce suggests buyers are not stepping in

• The prior “transition phase” is resolving lower

• Breadth is weak but not yet washed out

• Leadership continues to deteriorate

What Would Change the Story

• Reclaim and hold above key resistance levels

• Sustained move above anchored VWAP levels

• A rising 5-day moving average with follow-through

• Improvement in breadth and participation

Until then, the burden of proof remains on buyers.

Bottom Line

This remains a market environment that favors patience and disciplined risk management.

There is no urgency on the long side, and while short setups can be difficult in extended conditions, the primary trend continues to lean lower.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.