Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

The S&P 500 continues to hold up reasonably well, but the picture beneath the surface is becoming harder to ignore.

Breadth and participation weakened again this week, equal-weight indexes are beginning to break down, bond prices remain under pressure as yields push higher, and several important areas of the market are struggling to make progress. Meanwhile, the SPX and MAGS remain among the notable holdouts.

None of that guarantees lower prices ahead. But the evidence has changed enough to change our behavior.

This week, we’ll look at where the warning signs are developing, the levels that matter most, and why the current environment favors patience, selectivity, and a willingness to let the market prove itself before allocating additional risk.

Key takeaways

• SPX remains intact, holding above important longer-term support despite increasing weakness beneath the surface.

• Short-term structure remains challenged, with S&P and Nasdaq futures rallying back toward declining 5-day moving averages.

• DIA and IWM are deteriorating, while QQQ continues to lag the S&P.

• Bonds are a major caution flag. Aggregate, Treasury, and high-yield bonds remain under pressure as longer-term yields push higher.

• Equal-weight indexes are weakening, suggesting deterioration beneath the cap-weighted headline averages.

• Breadth continues to contract. Fewer than half of S&P 500 stocks are now above their 50-day moving averages, while Bullish Percent Indexes remain under pressure.

• Leadership remains narrow and uneven. MAG 7 continues to hold up relatively well while semiconductors struggle and other groups cool off.

• The FOMC decision adds another variable this week, but there’s no need to predict either the decision or the market’s reaction.

• The response: slow down, stay selective, keep some dry powder, and demand better setups with clearly defined risk.

• Let price improve the evidence. A reclaim of the 5-day followed by higher highs and higher lows would give us reason to become more constructive again.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

It was a Tuesday morning.

I was a young broker at Smith Barney. Not in New York. Not anywhere near New York. But I had just been there in late August for training at our 388 Greenwich headquarters and at the World Trade Center. I spent a lunch break walking around the plaza between the towers.

I was driving to the office when news came over the radio that a plane had hit one of the towers.

I’ll never forget the voice on the radio. I’ll never forget exactly which piece of road I was on.

We weren’t in New York. There was nothing we could do but watch in horror as the attack unfolded on television. I was trying to understand what was happening, then realizing this wasn’t an accident.

I was standing there talking with two other guys in the office when I looked back at the television and saw the first tower begin to crumble.

For a moment, my brain simply couldn’t process it. There was this enormous cloud of dust rolling through the streets, and then it hit me.

“Holy shit. The building is gone. It just fell.”

Unbelievable in the literal sense of the word. I could see it with my own eyes and still couldn’t believe it.

Astonishing. Devastating. Terrifying.

Such an awful day.

And yet, what followed is also something I’ll never forget.

In the days and weeks afterward, Americans grieved. We were angry. We struggled. And somehow, through all of it, we came together.

It was the most patriotic period I have experienced in my lifetime.

American Flags were everywhere. On front porches, businesses, buildings. Many, many more that usual. And the weren’t being flown out of a casual sense of duty. The flags were flying high because we were genuinely proud and united. Everyone took great comfort at the sight of the Stars and Stripes. It was a vivid reminder of how strong We are. We would recover.

I wouldn’t wish another September 11 on anyone, anywhere, for any reason.

Revisiting the site, feeling the absence of the towers, standing beside the memorial fountains that replaced them, and later walking among the individual memorials at the Pentagon is a sobering reminder of the enormity of what was lost that day, and of the individual lives behind numbers that can sometimes become too large to comprehend.

But, I would love to see President George W. Bush standing on the mound at Yankee Stadium, wearing an FDNY jacket, throwing that first pitch again.

I would love to the respect and support of the police, the firefighters, the first responders, the military — of every citizen and every true American.

I would love to see that kind of genuine, widespread love for this country again.

Those of us who were old enough to remember September 11, 2001, remember it in extraordinary detail. From the people who were in Lower Manhattan and Washington D.C. that morning to those of us watching helplessly from hundreds or thousands of miles away, the memories are etched into us.

So today, remember the people who went to work and never came home.

Remember the passengers and crews aboard those airplanes.

Remember the firefighters, police officers, first responders, and ordinary people who ran toward danger when every instinct told them to run away.

Remember those who lost their lives that day. And remember those who gave their lives in rescue, recovery, and rebuilding that followed.

And remember the country we became afterward.

Fly the flag.

Love your country.

Be proud of it.

And never forget.

September 11, 2001.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Last week, we concluded that the market’s recent weakness had not created meaningful technical damage. Price confirmed that assessment this week, with the major averages continuing to consolidate within their larger uptrends. The backdrop remains constructive, but not without some caution flags: participation has softened, interest rates continue to rise, and leadership remains uneven beneath the surface. This week’s charts help us identify where the strongest trends remain—and how to carry that bigger-picture information down to the shorter timeframes where actual trade decisions are made.

Key Takeaways

• SPY remains constructive, consolidating near the upper end of its recent range while holding important longer-term support.

• QQQ and DIA remain intact, while IWM continues to show comparatively weaker price action.

• The shorter-term roadmap is improving, with S&P and Nasdaq futures back above slightly rising 5-day moving averages.

• Breadth has softened but remains healthy longer term: roughly 50% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day MA and 64% remain above their 200-day.

• Rising rates remain a caution flag, with bond prices under pressure and Treasury yields maintaining their larger uptrends.

• Leadership remains mixed: biotech and energy remain constructive, software is digesting a strong run, and semiconductors continue to struggle despite NVIDIA reaching a new weekly closing high.

• The larger trend still favors long setups, but that doesn’t mean chasing extended stocks. Selectivity and defined risk remain essential.

• Multiple timeframes put the pieces together: use the weekly chart for context, then move down to the daily and intraday charts to identify structure, entries, and risk.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

After several weeks of reversal, confirmation, continuation, and then a test of the recent uptrend, this week brought… not much of a resolution. And that’s perfectly fine. The major averages continue to consolidate while holding important bigger-picture support, breadth remains healthy, and there are few signs of meaningful technical damage. This week’s charts also provide a good opportunity to step back and remember why we look at multiple timeframes in the first place: understand the broader market environment, then carry that information down to the charts where actual trading decisions are made.

Key Takeaways

• The bigger trend remains intact. The major averages continue to consolidate recent gains without significant technical damage.

• Short-term conditions improved somewhat. S&P and Nasdaq futures returned to higher highs and higher lows above rising 5-day moving averages, while small caps showed more weakness.

• QQQ continues to lag SPX. The Nasdaq 100 remains in consolidation and has yet to make the new highs seen in the S&P.

• Breadth remains healthy. Nearly 70% of S&P 500 stocks remain above their 200-day moving averages, while the Bullish Percent indexes show no major alarm bells.

• Relative strength isn’t sending a strong risk-on or risk-off message. Growth vs. Value, Discretionary vs. Staples, and High Beta vs. Low Volatility remain relatively balanced.

• Leadership remains mixed but constructive. Software remains strong, financials and energy continue to hold up well, while semiconductors remain stuck in consolidation.

• Bitcoin’s next test remains overhead. After finally clearing $65,500, Bitcoin continues to challenge resistance near the $80,000 area.

• Multiple timeframes matter. Apple provided a useful example of moving from the weekly trend to the daily setup and ultimately the shorter timeframe used to fine-tune execution and risk.

• No new signal is required. When the larger trend remains intact and the market is simply consolidating, there’s no need to manufacture a bullish or bearish call.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

After several weeks of reversal, confirmation, and continuation, the market finally faced its first meaningful test of the recent uptrend. Short-term conditions weakened as the major index futures slipped into lower lows and lower highs below declining 5-day moving averages, but the bigger picture remains considerably healthier. The major indices continue to hold important support, breadth remains constructive, and Bitcoin delivered the week’s standout move after finally breaking through a level we’ve been watching for weeks. The key distinction this week: weakness is not the same thing as damage.

Key Takeaways

• Short-term character changed: Major index futures shifted to lower lows and lower highs below declining 5-day moving averages.

• Bigger picture remains intact: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM remain above important longer-term support and their recent breakout structures.

• Weakness ≠ structural damage: So far, this looks like an orderly pullback within the larger uptrend.

• Bitcoin broke loose: The long-watched $65,500 level finally gave way, producing a powerful run toward the anchored VWAP from the all-time highs near $78,770.

• Bonds remain a concern: Treasury yields continue to hold their long-term breakout.

• Breadth softened but remains healthy: 54% of S&P 500 stocks remain above their 50-day MA and roughly 70% above their 200-day MA.

• Bullish Percents confirm some cooling: S&P and Nasdaq participation pulled back after stronger readings, but nothing suggests broad structural deterioration yet.

• Stay tactical: Be more selective, trim into strength, raise stops where structure allows, and let new evidence determine the next move.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

The market delivered another week of constructive price action, extending the reversal and confirmation we’ve been tracking over the past several weeks. SPY reached a new weekly closing high, IWM continued its advance, breadth remained healthy, and several sectors showed improving participation. Not everything is moving together—Bitcoin remains stuck, semiconductors are still working through resistance, and several Mag 7 names took a breather—but the weight of the evidence continues to favor the bulls. This week we’ll look at where leadership is developing, what still needs work, and the key areas to watch as we head into a quieter stretch of August.

• SPY followed through to a new weekly closing high, continuing the reversal and breakout sequence of the past several weeks.

• QQQ remains below its prior closing high but continues to hold above its moving averages with constructive price action.

• DIA posted an inside week in the upper portion of last week’s breakout candle, while IWM continued to new highs.

• Volatility and the U.S. Dollar remain subdued, providing a supportive backdrop for equities.

• Bitcoin remains stuck below resistance and its declining moving averages.

• Gold continued its rebound but has reached an important area of potential resistance.

• Risk-on relationships remain generally constructive, although the message was somewhat mixed this week.

• Semiconductors continue working through resistance, while biotech and software maintain their recent improvement.

• Financials continue their orderly advance.

• Energy stocks broke sharply higher despite relatively subdued crude oil—one of the week’s more interesting divergences.

• The Mag 7 consolidated after recent strength, with NVIDIA continuing to show improving price action.

• Market breadth remains strong, with a high percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50- and 200-day moving averages.

• Bullish-percent readings confirm strong participation but are now elevated enough to warrant continued monitoring.

• Swing-trade setups are increasing in both frequency and quality as conditions continue to improve.

• The evidence favors continued upside, but risk management remains job number one.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Last week, several major indices were testing important support and the Nasdaq 100 had formed a potential hammer reversal at the anchored VWAP from the March lows. This week, buyers delivered the confirmation we were waiting for. SPY pushed to new highs, QQQ reclaimed its shorter-term moving averages, breadth improved, and several risk-on relationships shifted back toward growth and higher-beta areas of the market. In this week’s review, we look beneath the surface to see where participation is strengthening, which groups still have work to do, and what the improving price action may mean for the week ahead.

Show Notes

• SPY broke decisively above recent resistance and moved to new weekly highs.

• QQQ confirmed last week’s hammer reversal and reclaimed its shorter-term moving averages.

• Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 also strengthened, with IWM moving to new weekly closing highs.

• Sunday evening futures opened quietly, with the major indices generally holding above rising five-day moving averages.

• Bitcoin continues to struggle with resistance near 65,500 and has not yet produced a durable bullish breakout.

• The U.S. Dollar failed to build on its prior breakout and has returned to a choppy range.

• Global equities improved, with ACWX reaching a new weekly closing high.

• Bonds bounced modestly but remain beneath declining short-term moving averages.

• Crude oil weakened after its recent breakout, while gold mounted a strong rebound from support.

• Growth outperformed value, discretionary strengthened versus staples, and high beta improved versus low volatility—all signs of returning risk appetite.

• Semiconductors remain unresolved, but software stocks showed a significant improvement.

• Biotech continued to recover and erased several weeks of prior selling.

• The Mag 7 broke higher from consolidation, while Microsoft and NVIDIA showed particularly strong momentum.

• Breadth improved meaningfully, with strong participation across both 50- and 200-day moving-average measures.

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 bullish-percent readings moved above 70%, confirming broad participation while also moving into areas worth monitoring for potential overextension.

• With most major earnings reports now behind the market, more swing-trading opportunities may begin to emerge.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Last week the market was searching for support. This week, buyers finally responded in a meaningful way.

The biggest story wasn’t the hammer candles themselves—it was where they formed. QQQ reversed from a key anchored VWAP after reaching correction territory, breadth improved from washed-out levels, and several leadership groups stabilized after a volatile earnings week. Whether this proves to be an intermediate bottom or simply another failed rally will depend on what happens next.

As always, the goal isn’t to predict—it’s to identify the important levels, interpret the evidence, and let price confirm the message.

• Roadmap improves: S&P futures reclaim a rising 5-day moving average while Nasdaq begins stabilizing.

• QQQ prints a hammer: Buyers defend the March 30 anchored VWAP after an intraday decline of more than 11%.

• Confirmation is next: Hammer candles are evidence—not buy signals. Follow-through is what matters.

• Equal-weight leadership: Equal-weight S&P reaches another closing high, showing participation beyond the largest names.

• Breadth responds: Nasdaq Bullish Percent reverses sharply after entering a washed-out zone highlighted last week.

• Rotation may be shifting: Growth and Consumer Discretionary recover while defensive leadership eases.

• Financials and Energy remain leaders: Both continue to hold constructive trends.

• Software rebounds: Microsoft earnings lift the sector, though broader leadership remains mixed.

• Bond yields break higher: Treasury yields remain an important macro development to monitor.

• Next week’s focus: Watch for confirmation through higher highs, higher lows, and improving short-term trend structure.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

The Markets

The market continues to send a mixed message. While the major indices remain in longer-term uptrends, short-term momentum has faded, leadership has narrowed, and money continues to rotate toward more defensive areas of the market. This week we revisit several key levels discussed last weekend, evaluate whether buyers followed through, and identify the sectors showing relative strength—and those still struggling to regain their footing. As always, the goal isn’t to predict what comes next, but to interpret the evidence the market is providing and adjust accordingly.

Show Notes

• Last week’s potential follow-through never developed as SPY and QQQ remained under pressure.

• SPY is below its 4- and 10-week moving averages but continues to hold above longer-term support.

• QQQ is testing a critical support area that could determine the next intermediate move.

• Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 continue to hold up better than the large-cap growth indices.

• Bitcoin failed to hold above a key resistance level and remains in a longer-term consolidation.

• The U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen with an emerging weekly breakout.

• Bonds remain weak while Treasury yields continue pushing higher.

• Crude oil and the Energy sector remain among the market’s strongest areas.

• Growth continues to lag Value, while Consumer Staples outperform Consumer Discretionary—evidence of ongoing defensive rotation.

• Semiconductors remain in orderly consolidation after a powerful advance.

• Software continues to deteriorate and remains one of the weakest major groups.

• Financials continue to hold up well despite broader market weakness.

• The Mag 7 remains under pressure, with several names threatening lower highs or renewed downtrends.

• Market breadth remains healthier than the headline indices alone would suggest.

• The current environment continues to reward patience, selectivity, and disciplined risk management over aggressive trading.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Key Takeaway

The market remains healthy beneath the surface, but rotation, failed follow-through, and uneven leadership are creating difficult trading conditions. The message is not to become aggressively bearish—it is to slow down, remain selective, and let price prove itself.

Show Notes

• SPY gave back last week’s trendline breakout and is now testing the confluence of its four- and ten-week moving averages.

• Hand-drawn trendlines are useful reference points, not precise barriers the market is obligated to respect.

• QQQ remains choppy near recent support, while Dow and IWM continue to hold stronger longer-term trends.

• Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization, including a positive RSI divergence, but still faces resistance overhead.

• Bonds remain in established downtrends, with lower highs, lower lows, and declining moving averages.

• Crude oil rebounded sharply but now faces an important test near overhead resistance.

• Gold remains below declining moving averages, with risk still tilted lower despite nearby support.

• Equal-weight participation remains generally healthy, but growth continues to lag value.

• Defensive rotation remains evident as staples outperform discretionary stocks and low-volatility names outperform high beta.

• Market breadth is still healthy beneath the surface, though Nasdaq participation remains mixed.

• Semiconductors are consolidating after an extraordinary advance and have not yet produced a clear breakdown.

• Biotech continues to digest its recent gains, while software remains directionless and difficult.

• Apple remains strong, while Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla show varying degrees of indecision or weakness.

• The broader market is not broken, but follow-through has become less reliable and quality setups are less plentiful.

• The current environment favors patience, smaller expectations, and concentration on only the best opportunities.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

• SPY closed above a six-week trendline and reclaimed its rising short-term weekly moving averages.

• QQQ rebounded sharply but remains inside a broad eight-week consolidation range.

• Dow and IWM continue to hold constructive longer-term trends despite some short-term chop.

• Equal-weight S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 charts remain strong, confirming broader participation beneath the surface.

• China bounced from oversold conditions, but follow-through is still needed before calling it a trend change.

• Bonds remain weak, keeping upward pressure on interest rates.

• Oil is attempting to stabilize but remains below declining weekly moving averages.

• Gold and silver continue to drift lower with little evidence of a sustained reversal.

• Semiconductors are consolidating following a significant advance.

• Biotech remains a leader, though an extended RSI reading and negative divergence suggest managing risk after the strong run.

• The Mag 7 improved as a group, led by new highs in Apple and constructive rebounds in Meta and NVIDIA.

• Microsoft and Tesla remain technically weak and need more work before their trends improve.

• Breadth remains healthy, with no significant warning signs from the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50- and 200-day moving averages.

• CPI, PPI, Fed speakers, and Treasury auctions may create short-term volatility during the coming week.

Key Takeaway

SPY’s move above its recent trendline is a constructive development. The broader market remains healthy, participation is holding up, and several important growth leaders are beginning to improve—but follow-through will determine whether the latest rebound becomes something more meaningful.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary -

• Major indexes remain in healthy long-term uptrends despite a quiet, holiday-shortened week.

• SPY, QQQ, and IWM all finished with inside weeks; the DIA broke out to fresh highs.

• Market breadth remains healthy with broad participation across equal-weight indexes.

• Biotech (XBI) and Financials continue to show leadership after successful breakouts.

• Semiconductors and many MAG7 names are consolidating rather than leading.

• Rotation continues toward more defensive areas including Healthcare and Utilities.

• Growth vs. Value, Consumer Staples, and Low Volatility all suggest slightly more defensive positioning.

• Dollar breakout remains an important macro development to monitor.

• Bitcoin, gold, and oil continue to lag.

• Short-term roadmap: Dow remains strongest while QQQ and IWM have slipped below declining 5-day moving averages.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Note: The audio is a bit muffled due having the wrong microphone selected. 🤦‍♂️
You should be able to hear fine. Its just not quite as clear as usual.

Another week of consolidation, but not much evidence of meaningful deterioration beneath the surface.

The most interesting developments this week were continued strength in semiconductors, a breakout in biotech, weakness in commodities, and broad market indices continuing to hold near highs despite plenty of headline noise.

Enjoy the long weekend. The charts will still be here next week.

The primary trend remains higher. Markets appear to be consolidating recent gains through time rather than price, while leadership and participation remain healthy enough to keep the benefit of the doubt with the bulls.

• Major indices remain in healthy uptrends despite several weeks of choppy consolidation.

• SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all continue to hold above key longer-term moving averages.

• QQQ, DIA, and IWM posted new weekly closing highs.

• Volatility continues to contract as markets absorb recent headline risk.

• Dollar strength is improving while commodities and energy have begun to cool.

• Bitcoin remains in a bearish configuration below declining moving averages.

• China (FXI) suffered a significant breakdown and remains one of the weakest global markets.

• Biotech (XBI) delivered a notable breakout and continues to emerge as a leadership group.

• Semiconductors remain exceptionally strong despite extended conditions.

• Software and several mega-cap technology names continue to lag.

• Financials attempted a breakout but gave back much of the week’s gains late in the week.

• Market breadth remains healthy with no meaningful deterioration in participation.

• Roadmap charts continue to show consolidation rather than distribution.

• Current evidence favors either:

  • A gradual grind higher, or

  • Additional sideways consolidation

• At present, a major correction appears less likely than continued digestion of prior gains.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Good evening,

I wanted to send a quick note before the futures open.

After several weeks of caution, we’re seeing an important shift develop in the market. The major indices are once again making higher highs and higher lows and have moved back above rising 5-day moving averages.

DIA and IWM both closed at new weekly highs, QQQ rebounded strongly, and financials continue to show signs of improving participation.

It’s still early, but the short-term evidence is becoming more constructive than it was just a week ago.

I’ve posted a brief Sunday evening chart review highlighting the key developments and what I’ll be watching as the new week begins.

Enjoy the rest of your evening, and I’ll be back with more as the week progresses.

— Andy

• Major indices have repaired significantly from recent weakness.

• SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA are now making higher highs and higher lows above a rising 5-day moving average.

• DIA and IWM posted new weekly closing highs.

• QQQ showed a strong rebound, reclaiming the 4-week moving average.

• Financials (XLF) continue to improve and may become an important source of market leadership.

• Semiconductors remain strong; biotech (XBI) is holding up and bears watching for a potential breakout.

• Crude oil is testing support while energy stocks continue to consolidate.

• Bitcoin is attempting to establish support near the $60,000 area.

• Near-term focus: Can the futures continue the higher-high/higher-low pattern as the week begins?

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Notes:

The short-term deterioration we discussed last week has continued to unfold. Markets remain below declining 5-day moving averages, leadership is weakening, and defensive areas are beginning to outperform. While this pullback remains relatively modest in the context of the larger advance from the March lows, the message from price remains the same: slow down, stay selective, and respect risk until strength returns.

Note: There will be no Weekly Charts video this Saturday as we’ll be celebrating my oldest son’s wedding. We’ll pick things back up early next week.

Key Takeaways

• Major indices remain below declining 5-day moving averages.

• Lower lows and lower highs continue across the market roadmap.

• SPY and QQQ are approaching key support near rising 50-day moving averages and anchored VWAPs from the March lows.

• Recent DeMark 9 sell signals in SPY, QQQ, and SOXX have proven meaningful.

• Semiconductors, software, MAG-7, and growth stocks continue to weaken.

• Consumer staples, healthcare, and value stocks are showing relative strength.

• Gold and silver have broken below their 200-day moving averages.

• Financials remain unable to reclaim a declining 200-day moving average.

• Current evidence favors caution rather than aggressive long exposure.

• Focus remains on risk management until the roadmap improves.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

This week’s Weekly Charts video reviews Friday’s sharp decline through the lens of process, not prediction. We look at the clues that were already developing beneath the surface: Bitcoin weakness, narrowing leadership, RSI divergence in QQQ, fewer long setups, and pressure in speculative leadership themes like URA, QTUM, AIQ, SOXX, and BLOK.

The lesson is simple:

—The goal is not to predict selloffs.
—The goal is to recognize when the evidence begins to change.

Summary:

• Last week’s message was continued strength, but several clues were developing beneath the surface.

• QQQ showed RSI divergence as price made new highs without momentum confirmation.

• Bitcoin and crypto-related themes weakened before the major indices broke lower.

• Speculative leadership groups like URA, QTUM, AIQ, $SOXX, and BLOK saw sharp reversals.

• Breadth did not collapse, which keeps this in the category of a short-term shift rather than major trend damage.

• The lesson: our job is not to predict. It is to evaluate evidence and adjust risk as the market’s message changes.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

The market is showing its first meaningful signs of slowing after several weeks of persistent strength.

Nothing suggests a major change in trend at this point, but the short-term character has shifted as more indices slip below their 5-day moving averages and leadership begins to narrow.

In today’s update, I review the major indices, sector leadership, Bitcoin, Financials, Semiconductors, and the Mag 7 to identify the levels that matter most if this pullback continues.

Show Notes:

• Major indices taking a short-term breather after a strong advance

• SPY, DIA, and IWM now below their 5-day moving averages

• QQQ remains the strongest of the major indices

• Daily charts still show healthy longer-term uptrends

• Semiconductors continue to lead despite recent volatility

• Financials failing to confirm the broader market strength

• Mag 7 momentum fading as several names test key support levels

• Bitcoin breaks below recent AVWAP support and weakens further

• Energy remains rangebound with no clear directional resolution

• Focus remains on risk management, support levels, and individual position management

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Get the Complete Trading Edge now at Alphatrends - the best value ever offered - available now for a short time.

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Summary

Markets continue to show resilience with major indexes holding above rising trend measures and participation remaining healthy beneath the surface.

Growth stocks continue to lead, consumer discretionary remains strong, and equal-weight indexes are showing encouraging follow-through. Software has staged an impressive recovery, biotech appears constructive, and financials remain a potential source of future leadership if they can finally break higher.

While Bitcoin remains under pressure and some sectors are consolidating recent gains, breadth indicators, bullish percent indexes, and relative strength relationships continue to support the broader bullish case.

The market may be extended in places, but the evidence currently points toward rotation and consolidation rather than meaningful deterioration.

Show Notes

• Major indexes remain above rising longer-term trend measures.

• Growth continues to outperform value.

• Consumer discretionary leadership remains intact.

• Equal-weight indexes continue improving participation.

• Financials remain a key area to watch for a potential breakout.

• Software and biotech are showing improving relative strength.

• Bitcoin remains under pressure below key moving averages.

• Volatility remains subdued despite concerns about market risk.

• Breadth indicators continue holding up well.

• No significant deterioration evident beneath the surface of the market.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Memorial Day Special at Alphatrends

Trading Adventures subscribers heard the news here first.

While the broader announcement is now making its way across the trading world, many of you already knew months ago that I officially joined Alphatrends and began working alongside Brian Shannon.

Now, another major addition has joined the effort with the inclusion of PhD trading psychologist Dr. Andrew Menaker.

This is the most robust Alphatrends educational bundle offered to date.

Most traders do not fail because they lack indicators or market opinions. They struggle with execution, risk management, consistency, emotional decision-making, and adapting to changing conditions. That broader perspective is what makes this offering so compelling.

You now have:

• Brian’s decades of expertise in market structure, anchored VWAP, and risk management

• My real-world application, trade management, and multi-timeframe trading perspective

• Dr. Menaker’s work on psychology, performance, emotional control, and decision-making under pressure

That combination addresses an enormous portion of what traders actually struggle with:

The Memorial Day sale is now live and includes discounted pricing across the Alphatrends offerings.

This offer gives traders access to the most complete trading education and development package we’ve ever assembled — at an exceptional value.

Get it here:

👉 Alphatrends Memorial Day Bundle

As always, I appreciate all of you who continue to support Trading Adventures and follow my work. I’m excited about what we’re building and look forward to continuing to share charts, lessons, market observations, and real-world trading insights along the way.

– Andy

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Markets continue to show impressive resilience as broad participation, strong trend structure, and improving equal-weight confirmation keep the weight of the evidence pointed higher. This week’s update reviews the major indices, breadth, rates, commodities, relative strength relationships, and several key sectors as we continue monitoring for early signs of any meaningful change in character.

Show Notes

• Major indices continue to trend higher with rising and properly aligned moving averages

• SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all remain above rising 4-week averages

• Equal-weight indices confirm strength with fresh breakouts

A couple weeks ago in the CMT Association’s Market Mosaic Daily newsletter, I noted this rejection near prior highs and explained why a breakout in the equal-weight indices would be another important confirmation of broad market strength.

One More Piece of Confirmation

• Small caps continue improving and pushing toward new highs

• 30-year yields remain a key chart to monitor after another failed breakout attempt

• High-yield bonds continue lagging stocks and remain mixed

• Semiconductors remain leadership

• Financials attempting to improve and potentially rejoin the rally

• Software stabilizing despite continued AI concerns

• Gold consolidating near key support and the rising 40-week moving average

• Crude oil rejected once again near major supply

• Bitcoin rejected at anchored VWAP resistance and testing the 10-week moving average

• Relative strength relationships remain broadly risk-on

Relative strength comes in many forms — RSI, intermarket relationships, and comparative performance versus the broader market. I recently revisited that topic in more detail here:

Relative Strength Depends On The Question

• Breadth measures remain healthy overall without major warning signals

If you’re unfamiliar with Bullish Percent Indexes and how they work, I covered the basics in this Chart School article:

The Bullish Percent Index: A Technician’s View of Participation

• Multi-timeframe structure still favors higher prices until proven otherwise

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.