Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

The Markets

The market continues to send a mixed message. While the major indices remain in longer-term uptrends, short-term momentum has faded, leadership has narrowed, and money continues to rotate toward more defensive areas of the market. This week we revisit several key levels discussed last weekend, evaluate whether buyers followed through, and identify the sectors showing relative strength—and those still struggling to regain their footing. As always, the goal isn’t to predict what comes next, but to interpret the evidence the market is providing and adjust accordingly.

Show Notes

• Last week’s potential follow-through never developed as SPY and QQQ remained under pressure.

• SPY is below its 4- and 10-week moving averages but continues to hold above longer-term support.

• QQQ is testing a critical support area that could determine the next intermediate move.

• Dow Industrials and Russell 2000 continue to hold up better than the large-cap growth indices.

• Bitcoin failed to hold above a key resistance level and remains in a longer-term consolidation.

• The U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen with an emerging weekly breakout.

• Bonds remain weak while Treasury yields continue pushing higher.

• Crude oil and the Energy sector remain among the market’s strongest areas.

• Growth continues to lag Value, while Consumer Staples outperform Consumer Discretionary—evidence of ongoing defensive rotation.

• Semiconductors remain in orderly consolidation after a powerful advance.

• Software continues to deteriorate and remains one of the weakest major groups.

• Financials continue to hold up well despite broader market weakness.

• The Mag 7 remains under pressure, with several names threatening lower highs or renewed downtrends.

• Market breadth remains healthier than the headline indices alone would suggest.

• The current environment continues to reward patience, selectivity, and disciplined risk management over aggressive trading.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Key Takeaway

The market remains healthy beneath the surface, but rotation, failed follow-through, and uneven leadership are creating difficult trading conditions. The message is not to become aggressively bearish—it is to slow down, remain selective, and let price prove itself.

Show Notes

• SPY gave back last week’s trendline breakout and is now testing the confluence of its four- and ten-week moving averages.

• Hand-drawn trendlines are useful reference points, not precise barriers the market is obligated to respect.

• QQQ remains choppy near recent support, while Dow and IWM continue to hold stronger longer-term trends.

• Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization, including a positive RSI divergence, but still faces resistance overhead.

• Bonds remain in established downtrends, with lower highs, lower lows, and declining moving averages.

• Crude oil rebounded sharply but now faces an important test near overhead resistance.

• Gold remains below declining moving averages, with risk still tilted lower despite nearby support.

• Equal-weight participation remains generally healthy, but growth continues to lag value.

• Defensive rotation remains evident as staples outperform discretionary stocks and low-volatility names outperform high beta.

• Market breadth is still healthy beneath the surface, though Nasdaq participation remains mixed.

• Semiconductors are consolidating after an extraordinary advance and have not yet produced a clear breakdown.

• Biotech continues to digest its recent gains, while software remains directionless and difficult.

• Apple remains strong, while Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla show varying degrees of indecision or weakness.

• The broader market is not broken, but follow-through has become less reliable and quality setups are less plentiful.

• The current environment favors patience, smaller expectations, and concentration on only the best opportunities.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

• SPY closed above a six-week trendline and reclaimed its rising short-term weekly moving averages.

• QQQ rebounded sharply but remains inside a broad eight-week consolidation range.

• Dow and IWM continue to hold constructive longer-term trends despite some short-term chop.

• Equal-weight S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 charts remain strong, confirming broader participation beneath the surface.

• China bounced from oversold conditions, but follow-through is still needed before calling it a trend change.

• Bonds remain weak, keeping upward pressure on interest rates.

• Oil is attempting to stabilize but remains below declining weekly moving averages.

• Gold and silver continue to drift lower with little evidence of a sustained reversal.

• Semiconductors are consolidating following a significant advance.

• Biotech remains a leader, though an extended RSI reading and negative divergence suggest managing risk after the strong run.

• The Mag 7 improved as a group, led by new highs in Apple and constructive rebounds in Meta and NVIDIA.

• Microsoft and Tesla remain technically weak and need more work before their trends improve.

• Breadth remains healthy, with no significant warning signs from the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50- and 200-day moving averages.

• CPI, PPI, Fed speakers, and Treasury auctions may create short-term volatility during the coming week.

Key Takeaway

SPY’s move above its recent trendline is a constructive development. The broader market remains healthy, participation is holding up, and several important growth leaders are beginning to improve—but follow-through will determine whether the latest rebound becomes something more meaningful.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary -

• Major indexes remain in healthy long-term uptrends despite a quiet, holiday-shortened week.

• SPY, QQQ, and IWM all finished with inside weeks; the DIA broke out to fresh highs.

• Market breadth remains healthy with broad participation across equal-weight indexes.

• Biotech (XBI) and Financials continue to show leadership after successful breakouts.

• Semiconductors and many MAG7 names are consolidating rather than leading.

• Rotation continues toward more defensive areas including Healthcare and Utilities.

• Growth vs. Value, Consumer Staples, and Low Volatility all suggest slightly more defensive positioning.

• Dollar breakout remains an important macro development to monitor.

• Bitcoin, gold, and oil continue to lag.

• Short-term roadmap: Dow remains strongest while QQQ and IWM have slipped below declining 5-day moving averages.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Note: The audio is a bit muffled due having the wrong microphone selected. 🤦‍♂️
You should be able to hear fine. Its just not quite as clear as usual.

Another week of consolidation, but not much evidence of meaningful deterioration beneath the surface.

The most interesting developments this week were continued strength in semiconductors, a breakout in biotech, weakness in commodities, and broad market indices continuing to hold near highs despite plenty of headline noise.

Enjoy the long weekend. The charts will still be here next week.

The primary trend remains higher. Markets appear to be consolidating recent gains through time rather than price, while leadership and participation remain healthy enough to keep the benefit of the doubt with the bulls.

• Major indices remain in healthy uptrends despite several weeks of choppy consolidation.

• SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all continue to hold above key longer-term moving averages.

• QQQ, DIA, and IWM posted new weekly closing highs.

• Volatility continues to contract as markets absorb recent headline risk.

• Dollar strength is improving while commodities and energy have begun to cool.

• Bitcoin remains in a bearish configuration below declining moving averages.

• China (FXI) suffered a significant breakdown and remains one of the weakest global markets.

• Biotech (XBI) delivered a notable breakout and continues to emerge as a leadership group.

• Semiconductors remain exceptionally strong despite extended conditions.

• Software and several mega-cap technology names continue to lag.

• Financials attempted a breakout but gave back much of the week’s gains late in the week.

• Market breadth remains healthy with no meaningful deterioration in participation.

• Roadmap charts continue to show consolidation rather than distribution.

• Current evidence favors either:

  • A gradual grind higher, or

  • Additional sideways consolidation

• At present, a major correction appears less likely than continued digestion of prior gains.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Good evening,

I wanted to send a quick note before the futures open.

After several weeks of caution, we’re seeing an important shift develop in the market. The major indices are once again making higher highs and higher lows and have moved back above rising 5-day moving averages.

DIA and IWM both closed at new weekly highs, QQQ rebounded strongly, and financials continue to show signs of improving participation.

It’s still early, but the short-term evidence is becoming more constructive than it was just a week ago.

I’ve posted a brief Sunday evening chart review highlighting the key developments and what I’ll be watching as the new week begins.

Enjoy the rest of your evening, and I’ll be back with more as the week progresses.

— Andy

• Major indices have repaired significantly from recent weakness.

• SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA are now making higher highs and higher lows above a rising 5-day moving average.

• DIA and IWM posted new weekly closing highs.

• QQQ showed a strong rebound, reclaiming the 4-week moving average.

• Financials (XLF) continue to improve and may become an important source of market leadership.

• Semiconductors remain strong; biotech (XBI) is holding up and bears watching for a potential breakout.

• Crude oil is testing support while energy stocks continue to consolidate.

• Bitcoin is attempting to establish support near the $60,000 area.

• Near-term focus: Can the futures continue the higher-high/higher-low pattern as the week begins?

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Notes:

The short-term deterioration we discussed last week has continued to unfold. Markets remain below declining 5-day moving averages, leadership is weakening, and defensive areas are beginning to outperform. While this pullback remains relatively modest in the context of the larger advance from the March lows, the message from price remains the same: slow down, stay selective, and respect risk until strength returns.

Note: There will be no Weekly Charts video this Saturday as we’ll be celebrating my oldest son’s wedding. We’ll pick things back up early next week.

Key Takeaways

• Major indices remain below declining 5-day moving averages.

• Lower lows and lower highs continue across the market roadmap.

• SPY and QQQ are approaching key support near rising 50-day moving averages and anchored VWAPs from the March lows.

• Recent DeMark 9 sell signals in SPY, QQQ, and SOXX have proven meaningful.

• Semiconductors, software, MAG-7, and growth stocks continue to weaken.

• Consumer staples, healthcare, and value stocks are showing relative strength.

• Gold and silver have broken below their 200-day moving averages.

• Financials remain unable to reclaim a declining 200-day moving average.

• Current evidence favors caution rather than aggressive long exposure.

• Focus remains on risk management until the roadmap improves.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

This week’s Weekly Charts video reviews Friday’s sharp decline through the lens of process, not prediction. We look at the clues that were already developing beneath the surface: Bitcoin weakness, narrowing leadership, RSI divergence in QQQ, fewer long setups, and pressure in speculative leadership themes like URA, QTUM, AIQ, SOXX, and BLOK.

The lesson is simple:

—The goal is not to predict selloffs.
—The goal is to recognize when the evidence begins to change.

Summary:

• Last week’s message was continued strength, but several clues were developing beneath the surface.

• QQQ showed RSI divergence as price made new highs without momentum confirmation.

• Bitcoin and crypto-related themes weakened before the major indices broke lower.

• Speculative leadership groups like URA, QTUM, AIQ, $SOXX, and BLOK saw sharp reversals.

• Breadth did not collapse, which keeps this in the category of a short-term shift rather than major trend damage.

• The lesson: our job is not to predict. It is to evaluate evidence and adjust risk as the market’s message changes.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

The market is showing its first meaningful signs of slowing after several weeks of persistent strength.

Nothing suggests a major change in trend at this point, but the short-term character has shifted as more indices slip below their 5-day moving averages and leadership begins to narrow.

In today’s update, I review the major indices, sector leadership, Bitcoin, Financials, Semiconductors, and the Mag 7 to identify the levels that matter most if this pullback continues.

Show Notes:

• Major indices taking a short-term breather after a strong advance

• SPY, DIA, and IWM now below their 5-day moving averages

• QQQ remains the strongest of the major indices

• Daily charts still show healthy longer-term uptrends

• Semiconductors continue to lead despite recent volatility

• Financials failing to confirm the broader market strength

• Mag 7 momentum fading as several names test key support levels

• Bitcoin breaks below recent AVWAP support and weakens further

• Energy remains rangebound with no clear directional resolution

• Focus remains on risk management, support levels, and individual position management

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Get the Complete Trading Edge now at Alphatrends - the best value ever offered - available now for a short time.

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Summary

Markets continue to show resilience with major indexes holding above rising trend measures and participation remaining healthy beneath the surface.

Growth stocks continue to lead, consumer discretionary remains strong, and equal-weight indexes are showing encouraging follow-through. Software has staged an impressive recovery, biotech appears constructive, and financials remain a potential source of future leadership if they can finally break higher.

While Bitcoin remains under pressure and some sectors are consolidating recent gains, breadth indicators, bullish percent indexes, and relative strength relationships continue to support the broader bullish case.

The market may be extended in places, but the evidence currently points toward rotation and consolidation rather than meaningful deterioration.

Show Notes

• Major indexes remain above rising longer-term trend measures.

• Growth continues to outperform value.

• Consumer discretionary leadership remains intact.

• Equal-weight indexes continue improving participation.

• Financials remain a key area to watch for a potential breakout.

• Software and biotech are showing improving relative strength.

• Bitcoin remains under pressure below key moving averages.

• Volatility remains subdued despite concerns about market risk.

• Breadth indicators continue holding up well.

• No significant deterioration evident beneath the surface of the market.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Memorial Day Special at Alphatrends

Trading Adventures subscribers heard the news here first.

While the broader announcement is now making its way across the trading world, many of you already knew months ago that I officially joined Alphatrends and began working alongside Brian Shannon.

Now, another major addition has joined the effort with the inclusion of PhD trading psychologist Dr. Andrew Menaker.

This is the most robust Alphatrends educational bundle offered to date.

Most traders do not fail because they lack indicators or market opinions. They struggle with execution, risk management, consistency, emotional decision-making, and adapting to changing conditions. That broader perspective is what makes this offering so compelling.

You now have:

• Brian’s decades of expertise in market structure, anchored VWAP, and risk management

• My real-world application, trade management, and multi-timeframe trading perspective

• Dr. Menaker’s work on psychology, performance, emotional control, and decision-making under pressure

That combination addresses an enormous portion of what traders actually struggle with:

The Memorial Day sale is now live and includes discounted pricing across the Alphatrends offerings.

This offer gives traders access to the most complete trading education and development package we’ve ever assembled — at an exceptional value.

Get it here:

👉 Alphatrends Memorial Day Bundle

As always, I appreciate all of you who continue to support Trading Adventures and follow my work. I’m excited about what we’re building and look forward to continuing to share charts, lessons, market observations, and real-world trading insights along the way.

– Andy

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Markets continue to show impressive resilience as broad participation, strong trend structure, and improving equal-weight confirmation keep the weight of the evidence pointed higher. This week’s update reviews the major indices, breadth, rates, commodities, relative strength relationships, and several key sectors as we continue monitoring for early signs of any meaningful change in character.

Show Notes

• Major indices continue to trend higher with rising and properly aligned moving averages

• SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all remain above rising 4-week averages

• Equal-weight indices confirm strength with fresh breakouts

A couple weeks ago in the CMT Association’s Market Mosaic Daily newsletter, I noted this rejection near prior highs and explained why a breakout in the equal-weight indices would be another important confirmation of broad market strength.

One More Piece of Confirmation

• Small caps continue improving and pushing toward new highs

• 30-year yields remain a key chart to monitor after another failed breakout attempt

• High-yield bonds continue lagging stocks and remain mixed

• Semiconductors remain leadership

• Financials attempting to improve and potentially rejoin the rally

• Software stabilizing despite continued AI concerns

• Gold consolidating near key support and the rising 40-week moving average

• Crude oil rejected once again near major supply

• Bitcoin rejected at anchored VWAP resistance and testing the 10-week moving average

• Relative strength relationships remain broadly risk-on

Relative strength comes in many forms — RSI, intermarket relationships, and comparative performance versus the broader market. I recently revisited that topic in more detail here:

Relative Strength Depends On The Question

• Breadth measures remain healthy overall without major warning signals

If you’re unfamiliar with Bullish Percent Indexes and how they work, I covered the basics in this Chart School article:

The Bullish Percent Index: A Technician’s View of Participation

• Multi-timeframe structure still favors higher prices until proven otherwise

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Publishing has been a little lighter recently between family events and commitments with Alphatrends, but I wanted to jump in with a shorter midweek market update and run through some of the key areas I’m watching here.

A decent bounce today across the indices with several important groups continuing to defend rising intermediate-term trends. We’ll take a quick look at the major indices, rates, crude oil, Bitcoin, semiconductors, software, financials, and a few other areas showing notable movement.

Show Notes:

• Indices bounced back above their 5-day moving averages

• Only the Dow now has a rising 5-day MA

• Several key areas continue defending rising 20-day moving averages

• Semis, software, and MAG-7 names showed improvement after recent weakness

• Financials remain rangebound below key anchored VWAP resistance

• Energy pulled back with crude oil reversing lower

• Bitcoin continues defending its rising 50-day moving average

• 30-year yields eased back from recent highs

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

And for anyone who missed last week’s Market Mosaic Daily series with the CMT Association, I referenced several of those charts again in today’s update. You can read those articles by clicking this link and scrolling down to my entries from May 4 through May 8.

https://content.cmtassociation.org/market-mosaic

Show Notes:

• SPY and QQQ testing — and holding — rising short-term moving averages

• DeMARK 9 setups appearing after extended momentum runs

• Dow and small caps lagging slightly, but still trending higher

• Bitcoin and crypto testing major overhead supply zones

• Bonds weakening while stocks continue to ignore rising yields

• Commodities, silver, and crude oil continuing to firm up

• Equal-weight participation and what it says about breadth

• Early relative weakness in financials and consumer discretionary

• Semiconductors and mega-cap tech still carrying leadership

• Why the rising 5-day moving average remains the key roadmap from here

Final Take

Today looked more like moderation than deterioration.

After such a sharp advance, some digestion and rotation beneath the surface is normal. The important thing right now is that buyers continue defending the short-term trend structure, particularly in the large-cap indices.

If that changes, the first clue will likely come from price beginning to lose and stay below rising 5-day moving averages.

Until then, buyer’s are in control.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Quick heads up.

This week, I’ll be publishing daily in the CMT Association’s Market Mosaic Daily newsletter.

It runs Monday through Friday, with a new piece out each day.

What to expect:

• Market-focused breakdowns using the same framework you’re used to

• Big-picture context and trend alignment

• A couple of deeper, educational pieces mixed in during the week

Where to read:

• Articles are published daily here (about halfway down the page):
  👉 https://content.cmtassociation.org/hub/research

• Want them delivered to your inbox? Subscribe here:
  👉 https://content.cmtassociation.org/market-mosaic-register

This is a good chance to step back and look at the market through a slightly wider lens—same process, just a bigger stage.

I’ll be back later this week and this weekend with the usual 📈Weekly Charts📉 and updates.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. Let price lead.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Trend Context

  • SPY and QQQ holding above rising 5-day MAs → short-term trend intact

  • IWM and Dow lagging below declining 5-day → mixed participation

• Market Character

  • Consolidation after a strong multi-week run

  • Pullbacks are shallow and short-lived

  • Market correcting by time, not price → constructive

• Key Technical Takeaways

  • S&P holding 8-day MA and prior breakout area (polarity in play)

  • QQQ showing minor exhaustion signals, but nothing decisive

  • Dow forming bullish consolidation near short-term averages

  • IWM finding buyers at prior key levels

• Intermarket Notes

  • Bitcoin facing resistance but not breaking down

  • Volatility continues to compress

  • Crude rising while equities pause (inverse behavior worth noting)

  • Gold stuck in a messy range

• Big Picture

  • Nothing technically broken

  • Trend remains intact

  • Market is pausing, not reversing

• Catalysts Ahead

  • FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

  • Core PCE, jobless claims (Thursday)

  • Heavy earnings: GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META, AAPL

  • Additional names across sectors reporting

• Key Message

  • This is a risk management environment, not a prediction environment

  • Traders should be aware of earnings exposure and binary events

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Markets continued higher this week, but momentum cooled as many sectors and asset classes printed inside candles. That is not a bearish development by itself. After a fast advance, the market appears to be correcting through time rather than price.

SPY and QQQ remain strong, semiconductors and MAG7 continue to lead, and Bitcoin is improving. Breadth backed off slightly, but remains constructive. The Dow is the one major index showing some caution, with lower highs and lower lows below a declining 5-day moving average.

Key Takeaways

• SPY and QQQ pushed to new highs

• Many areas printed inside weeks: Dow, crude, gold, silver, XBI, XLF, XLE

• Semiconductors remain the strongest leadership group

• MAG7 remains strong, with Amazon especially impressive

• Breadth cooled slightly, but remains above key participation levels

• Bitcoin improved and is back above important reference levels

• Dow is the weakest of the major index charts

• Current action looks like digestion, not deterioration

Bottom Line

After a major advance, the market paused instead of pulling back sharply.

Buyers did not press, but they also did not give up control. The main trend remains higher, but some rest, consolidation, or a test of rising short-term moving averages would be normal.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Market remains in an uptrend, but momentum is slowing

• Continued time correction — 5+ days of sideways action

• Repeated tests of the rising 5-day MA (now being lost intraday)

• SPY:

  • Resistance ~712–713

  • Watching downside reference ~694–695

  • Still extended vs. 21-day

• QQQ:

  • Holding above rising 5-day

  • Slight loss of momentum

• Dow / IWM:

  • Back into prior ranges

  • Potential for deeper tests as MAs catch up

• Bitcoin:

  • Strong relative position

  • Above key MAs and YTD AVWAP

• Crude Oil:

  • Pushing higher, testing key levels near 100

• Leadership:

  • Semiconductors remain strong

  • MAG7 holding up well

• Weak spots:

  • Financials rejected at 200-day MA

• Key takeaway:

  • Not breaking down — just losing upside momentum

  • Watching for:

    • Continued sideways action

    • Or pullback into key levels

• Tactical focus:

  • Manage risk

  • Trail stops

  • Let structure develop

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Market remains in a strong uptrend, but conditions are extended

• First test of the rising 5-day moving average since April 7

• Light volume persists across April — notable but not a signal

• SPY up ~13 sessions off the lows → stretched above short-term averages

• Gap between price and 21-day MA suggests potential for time or price correction

• Short-term focus:

  • 5-day MA = immediate trend reference

  • Shorter timeframes = better risk management

• Key levels:

  • SPY potential pullback zone ~695

  • Watch for consolidation into prior structure

• Sector notes:

  • Semiconductors remain strong (leadership intact)

  • Energy firming with oil strength

  • Software showing indecision near resistance

  • Financials stalling at 200-day MA

• Individual focus:

  • Tesla earnings → binary event risk

• Tactical approach:

  • Don’t chase extended price

  • Respect trailing stops

  • Let pullbacks create opportunity

• Bottom line:

  • Trend intact

  • Conditions less forgiving

  • Focus on structure and risk

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Markets didn’t just bounce—they followed through and broke out.

After weeks of tracking a steady decline, then a bounce and confirmation phase, we now have a completed sequence: higher lows, higher highs, and expanding participation. Major indices are back at new weekly closing highs, leadership remains strong, and what looked like overhead supply was quickly absorbed.

This is no longer a countertrend move. It’s a trend attempt.

The question now shifts from “is this real?” to “can it sustain?”

Key Takeaways

• New highs across the board

  • SPX, QQQ, and IWM all pushing to or near new weekly closing highs

  • Dow back into a key prior supply zone

• Three weeks of aggressive buying

  • Strong upside continuation each week

  • Minimal pullbacks—buyers in clear control

• Overhead supply absorbed

  • Prior resistance zones cleared quickly

  • No meaningful hesitation at key levels

• Breadth and participation expanding

  • % of stocks above 50-day MA surged from ~20% to ~60%

  • Bullish percent indices back to “bull confirmed”

• Leadership remains strong

  • Semiconductors continue to lead

  • Biotech (XBI) confirms strength and negates prior topping pattern

• Software rebounds sharply

  • Strong bounce, but still needs follow-through

  • One of the last areas to fully confirm

• Risk-on signals returning

  • Growth > value

  • Discretionary > staples

  • High beta outperforming low volatility

• Bitcoin improving

  • Back above key reference levels

  • Still has work to do, but structure is improving

• Bonds quiet, not disruptive

  • Stability helping support equity strength

• Commodities stabilizing

  • Oil volatility easing after extreme ranges

  • Gold and silver consolidating

Bottom Line

The sequence we’ve been tracking is complete.

This is no longer just a bounce—it’s a confirmed trend attempt driven by strong, broad-based buying.

Pullbacks can happen at any time, but for now:

• Buyers are in control

• Participation is expanding

• Trends are moving higher

We buy uptrends and manage risk.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.