Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Trend Context

  • SPY and QQQ holding above rising 5-day MAs → short-term trend intact

  • IWM and Dow lagging below declining 5-day → mixed participation

• Market Character

  • Consolidation after a strong multi-week run

  • Pullbacks are shallow and short-lived

  • Market correcting by time, not price → constructive

• Key Technical Takeaways

  • S&P holding 8-day MA and prior breakout area (polarity in play)

  • QQQ showing minor exhaustion signals, but nothing decisive

  • Dow forming bullish consolidation near short-term averages

  • IWM finding buyers at prior key levels

• Intermarket Notes

  • Bitcoin facing resistance but not breaking down

  • Volatility continues to compress

  • Crude rising while equities pause (inverse behavior worth noting)

  • Gold stuck in a messy range

• Big Picture

  • Nothing technically broken

  • Trend remains intact

  • Market is pausing, not reversing

• Catalysts Ahead

  • FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

  • Core PCE, jobless claims (Thursday)

  • Heavy earnings: GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META, AAPL

  • Additional names across sectors reporting

• Key Message

  • This is a risk management environment, not a prediction environment

  • Traders should be aware of earnings exposure and binary events

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Markets continued higher this week, but momentum cooled as many sectors and asset classes printed inside candles. That is not a bearish development by itself. After a fast advance, the market appears to be correcting through time rather than price.

SPY and QQQ remain strong, semiconductors and MAG7 continue to lead, and Bitcoin is improving. Breadth backed off slightly, but remains constructive. The Dow is the one major index showing some caution, with lower highs and lower lows below a declining 5-day moving average.

Key Takeaways

• SPY and QQQ pushed to new highs

• Many areas printed inside weeks: Dow, crude, gold, silver, XBI, XLF, XLE

• Semiconductors remain the strongest leadership group

• MAG7 remains strong, with Amazon especially impressive

• Breadth cooled slightly, but remains above key participation levels

• Bitcoin improved and is back above important reference levels

• Dow is the weakest of the major index charts

• Current action looks like digestion, not deterioration

Bottom Line

After a major advance, the market paused instead of pulling back sharply.

Buyers did not press, but they also did not give up control. The main trend remains higher, but some rest, consolidation, or a test of rising short-term moving averages would be normal.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Market remains in an uptrend, but momentum is slowing

• Continued time correction — 5+ days of sideways action

• Repeated tests of the rising 5-day MA (now being lost intraday)

• SPY:

  • Resistance ~712–713

  • Watching downside reference ~694–695

  • Still extended vs. 21-day

• QQQ:

  • Holding above rising 5-day

  • Slight loss of momentum

• Dow / IWM:

  • Back into prior ranges

  • Potential for deeper tests as MAs catch up

• Bitcoin:

  • Strong relative position

  • Above key MAs and YTD AVWAP

• Crude Oil:

  • Pushing higher, testing key levels near 100

• Leadership:

  • Semiconductors remain strong

  • MAG7 holding up well

• Weak spots:

  • Financials rejected at 200-day MA

• Key takeaway:

  • Not breaking down — just losing upside momentum

  • Watching for:

    • Continued sideways action

    • Or pullback into key levels

• Tactical focus:

  • Manage risk

  • Trail stops

  • Let structure develop

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Market remains in a strong uptrend, but conditions are extended

• First test of the rising 5-day moving average since April 7

• Light volume persists across April — notable but not a signal

• SPY up ~13 sessions off the lows → stretched above short-term averages

• Gap between price and 21-day MA suggests potential for time or price correction

• Short-term focus:

  • 5-day MA = immediate trend reference

  • Shorter timeframes = better risk management

• Key levels:

  • SPY potential pullback zone ~695

  • Watch for consolidation into prior structure

• Sector notes:

  • Semiconductors remain strong (leadership intact)

  • Energy firming with oil strength

  • Software showing indecision near resistance

  • Financials stalling at 200-day MA

• Individual focus:

  • Tesla earnings → binary event risk

• Tactical approach:

  • Don’t chase extended price

  • Respect trailing stops

  • Let pullbacks create opportunity

• Bottom line:

  • Trend intact

  • Conditions less forgiving

  • Focus on structure and risk

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Summary

Markets didn’t just bounce—they followed through and broke out.

After weeks of tracking a steady decline, then a bounce and confirmation phase, we now have a completed sequence: higher lows, higher highs, and expanding participation. Major indices are back at new weekly closing highs, leadership remains strong, and what looked like overhead supply was quickly absorbed.

This is no longer a countertrend move. It’s a trend attempt.

The question now shifts from “is this real?” to “can it sustain?”

Key Takeaways

• New highs across the board

  • SPX, QQQ, and IWM all pushing to or near new weekly closing highs

  • Dow back into a key prior supply zone

• Three weeks of aggressive buying

  • Strong upside continuation each week

  • Minimal pullbacks—buyers in clear control

• Overhead supply absorbed

  • Prior resistance zones cleared quickly

  • No meaningful hesitation at key levels

• Breadth and participation expanding

  • % of stocks above 50-day MA surged from ~20% to ~60%

  • Bullish percent indices back to “bull confirmed”

• Leadership remains strong

  • Semiconductors continue to lead

  • Biotech (XBI) confirms strength and negates prior topping pattern

• Software rebounds sharply

  • Strong bounce, but still needs follow-through

  • One of the last areas to fully confirm

• Risk-on signals returning

  • Growth > value

  • Discretionary > staples

  • High beta outperforming low volatility

• Bitcoin improving

  • Back above key reference levels

  • Still has work to do, but structure is improving

• Bonds quiet, not disruptive

  • Stability helping support equity strength

• Commodities stabilizing

  • Oil volatility easing after extreme ranges

  • Gold and silver consolidating

Bottom Line

The sequence we’ve been tracking is complete.

This is no longer just a bounce—it’s a confirmed trend attempt driven by strong, broad-based buying.

Pullbacks can happen at any time, but for now:

• Buyers are in control

• Participation is expanding

• Trends are moving higher

We buy uptrends and manage risk.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Trend remains firmly higher

  • SPY, QQQ, and IWM at new highs; DIA catching up

  • ~11% move in just over two weeks confirms strong momentum

• Extension is the current condition

  • Price stretched vs. short-term averages

  • Not an ideal location for initiating risk on higher timeframes

• Execution shifts to lower timeframes

  • Use 30-min / 15-min charts for precision

  • Define entries against recent lows, 5-day MA, and AVWAPs

• Risk management becomes the edge

  • Smaller size + tighter levels improves participation

  • Avoid chasing extended price

• Bitcoin showing constructive behavior

  • Holding near YTD AVWAP instead of rejecting

  • Early sign of potential change in behavior

• Intermarket backdrop stable

  • Bonds steady

  • Commodities holding

  • Volatility declining alongside equities

• What this teaches

  • Strong trends don’t eliminate risk—they require better execution

  • When price is extended, timeframe selection becomes a key decision

• Forward lens

  • Market likely to resolve extension via time or price

  • Rising 50-day MAs reinforce underlying trend strength

  • Focus remains: align with trend, define risk, avoid forcing trades

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Show Notes

• Markets advance from decline → bounce → follow-through

• Two strong green weeks lift SPX back above key averages

• DeMARK 9 buy setup leads to meaningful upside response

• Short-term trend improves: higher highs/lows above rising 5-day

• Multi-timeframe alignment begins to build

• IWM shows relative strength, DIA lags near resistance

• Semiconductors lead, software remains weak

• Participation improves, but still not fully confirmed

• Market now in a balance phase with overhead supply

• Focus shifts to continuation vs. failure of this sequence

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

A strong gap higher and follow-through pushed price back above the 50-day moving average and key anchored VWAP levels, confirming the developing pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This is the type of expansion that often follows early improvement in structure.

With price extended after a news-driven move, the focus now shifts to how the market digests gains. Key reference points sit below, including the 5-day moving average and multiple anchored VWAP levels. The trend has improved, but shorter time frames will be critical as volatility and headlines continue to drive two-way movement.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

Markets continue to show early improvement with higher highs and higher lows supported by a rising 5-day moving average. However, price remains below key intermediate and longer-term resistance levels, keeping conditions choppy and headline-driven. This remains a tactical environment where shorter time frames, smaller position sizes, and disciplined risk management are essential.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Show notes:

Markets saw their first meaningful bounce after several weeks of steady selling. While the move was broad-based, it remains a countertrend bounce, not a confirmed reversal.

Most indices are still below key moving averages and resistance levels. Participation improved slightly, but not enough to signal a durable low.

The focus remains the same: let the sequence develop. We need to see higher highs and higher lows above a rising 5-day moving average before getting more constructive.

Key Takeaways

• First bounce after persistent selling

  • Broad, but still a countertrend move

• No structural change (yet)

  • Indices remain below declining intermediate-term averages

  • Bounce stalled near resistance

• Participation improved—but still weak

  • Not washed out before

  • Not strong enough now

• Leadership remains limited

  • Most sectors bounced into resistance

  • Biotech (XBI) a notable exception

• Commodities still strongest trend

  • Energy leading with extreme volatility

  • Crude remains dominant driver

• Intermarket signals mixed

  • Bitcoin weak

  • Bonds stabilizing, not reversing

What to Watch

• Higher highs + higher lows above a rising 5-day MA

• Follow-through early next week vs. failure at resistance

• Expansion in participation and leadership

Bottom Line

• Respect the bounce—but don’t trust it yet

• No urgency on the long side

• The burden of proof remains on the buyers

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Apologies if the audio is a little low. I had to record this “on the go” this morning. Crank the volume, use the closed captioning, and follow along in the show notes.

Summary

The market continues to resolve lower following several weeks of deterioration beneath the surface.

We now have five consecutive weeks of selling in the S&P 500, with repeated closes near the lows and little to no meaningful countertrend bounce. This is not panic or capitulation—rather, it reflects steady, controlled distribution as participants reduce exposure.

What had been a transition phase is now leaning clearly in favor of continued weakness. Participation remains limited, breadth is not yet washed out, and there is still no evidence of demand stepping in with authority.

Until price can reclaim key levels and establish alignment across timeframes, the path of least resistance remains lower. There is no urgency on the long side, and patience continues to be the most important tool.

Weekly Breakdown

Market Environment

• Five consecutive weeks of selling in the S&P 500

• Repeated closes near weekly lows

• No meaningful countertrend rallies

• Persistent, orderly selling—not panic or capitulation

Trend & Structure

• Price below declining short-term moving averages

• Continued sequence of lower highs and lower lows

• Failed bounce attempts and weak upside follow-through

• Trend remains lower across multiple timeframes

Participation & Breadth

• Limited improvement in participation

• % of stocks above 50-day stabilizing slightly, but still weak

• % above 200-day continues to decline

• Not yet at historically washed-out levels

Volatility & Character

• Volatility rising gradually—not a sharp spike

• Confirms controlled, systematic selling rather than emotional liquidation

Intermarket Observations

• Small caps showing relative resilience but still fragile

• Bitcoin remains weak below key levels

• Bonds under pressure alongside equities

• Commodities (especially energy-heavy) remain strong

• Dollar consolidating without clear resolution

Sector & Leadership Notes

• Former leaders (semis, software, MAG-7) showing increased selling pressure

• Defensive positioning remains evident (staples, utilities)

• High beta vs low volatility continues to favor defensive posture

Key Takeaways

• This is controlled distribution, not panic

• The absence of a meaningful bounce suggests buyers are not stepping in

• The prior “transition phase” is resolving lower

• Breadth is weak but not yet washed out

• Leadership continues to deteriorate

What Would Change the Story

• Reclaim and hold above key resistance levels

• Sustained move above anchored VWAP levels

• A rising 5-day moving average with follow-through

• Improvement in breadth and participation

Until then, the burden of proof remains on buyers.

Bottom Line

This remains a market environment that favors patience and disciplined risk management.

There is no urgency on the long side, and while short setups can be difficult in extended conditions, the primary trend continues to lean lower.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes:

• Choppy, back-and-forth action with no real progress

• S&P 500 consolidating just above a slightly rising 5-day MA

• Nasdaq still below the 5-day; Russell showing relative strength

• All major indices remain in an intermediate downtrend

• Prior support acting as resistance (especially in QQQ)

• No meaningful movement in Bitcoin or overseas markets

• Oil consolidating recent gains; gold and silver still in downtrends

• Semiconductors showing relative strength; biotech remains weak

• Limited swing trading opportunities—environment favors patience

• Key next step: expansion, higher highs/lows, and 5-day MA turning higher

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

🔹 Weekly Chart Notes

• Market continues to follow a short-term downtrend (lower highs / lower lows)

• No evidence yet of a confirmed reversal

• Recent weakness reflects cracks that have been developing for several weeks

🔹 Key Themes

• Failed rallies are becoming more common

• Breadth continues to weaken

• Former areas of leadership are breaking down

• Defensive positioning is increasing

🔹 Levels & Structure

• Price testing key reference areas (anchored VWAPs, prior highs/lows)

• Major moving averages not acting as support

• Markets reacting to levels—but not consistently holding them

🔹 Intermarket Observations

• Equities under pressure across the board

• Bonds not providing safety

• Commodities (especially energy) remain strong

• Dollar consolidating at elevated levels

🔹 Breadth & Participation

• % of stocks above 50-day moving average nearing washout levels

• % above 200-day continues to decline

• No confirmed improvement in participation yet

🔹 What To Watch

• Signs of stabilization vs. continued downside

• Development of higher highs / higher lows on shorter timeframes

• Whether key reference levels are defended or broken

🔹 Bottom Line

• Environment remains cautious and defensive

• Message unchanged: go slow, be patient, do less

• Let price action confirm any shift before adjusting positioning

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Market Update — Show Notes

Theme:

Trend lower. Today confirmed it.

Key Level

• SPY: Closed below 200-day → trend deterioration

Index Snapshot

• SPY: Below 200-day, weak bounce

• QQQ: Lost support, near 200-day

• DIA: 2 days below 200-day

• IWM: Last holdout, weakening

Context

• Below declining 5-day

• Below AVWAPs

• Rallies failing

• No follow-through

Other Markets

• Bitcoin: Rejected YTD AVWAP

• Dollar / Bonds: No change

Playbook

• Go slow

• Do less

• Small size

• Respect risk

Bottom Line

Sellers in control. No reason to force trades.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show notes:

Quick take:

A short-term bounce is underway, but the broader structure remains unresolved ahead of the Fed.

Market Update – March 17

• Not much has changed since the weekend

• Indices have bounced back above a declining 5-day moving average

• Short-term structure shows higher highs and higher lows on lower timeframes

• Daily charts still show price below key moving averages (8/21-day)

• Price is interacting with anchored VWAP levels from recent pivots (August, YTD)

• Overall condition remains a potential transition area—not a confirmed trend change

Broader context (from Saturday):

• Weakening participation beneath the surface

• More cautious tone across markets

• Damage that likely requires time to repair

Other notes:

• Bitcoin attempting to stabilize but still in a broader downtrend context

• No clear resolution yet across major assets

Key takeaway:

• Bounce acknowledged, but structure has not fully improved

• Short-term improvement is developing, but higher timeframes remain corrective

• This remains a “go slow, do less, stay patient” environment

• We want to see alignment across timeframes before getting more aggressive

What matters next:

• Continued acceptance above the 5-day moving average

• Improvement in breadth and participation

• Reclaiming higher timeframe moving averages (8/21-day)

• Failure back below recent lows would signal continued weakness

Near-term catalyst:

• FOMC decision tomorrow → added uncertainty, limited edge

CTA:

If you’re following along with the weekly charts, this is simply an update on that roadmap. I’ll revisit things after the Fed and see whether this transition resolves or fails.

Note on audio quality:

I’ve heard the feedback on the audio and understand the frustration. I’m actively working on improving the setup and appreciate your patience while I get that dialed in.

The Process Behind the Work

• Price > opinion

• Trend > prediction

• Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Weakness Continues as Markets Test Key Support

Over the past several weeks we’ve been pointing out cracks developing beneath the surface of the market. Last week those cracks widened as major indices began breaking below important intermediate trend levels.

This week we saw continued downside pressure, with the S&P 500 testing its 200-day moving average, QQQ approaching long-term trend support, and several breadth indicators confirming that participation across the market is deteriorating.

In this week’s video we review:

• The S&P 500 testing the 200-day moving average

• Continued weakness across major indices

• Global markets and macro asset behavior

• Sector rotation and defensive positioning

• Breadth and participation indicators

• Key economic events to watch next week

Leadership continues to weaken as fewer stocks remain in intermediate and long-term uptrends. At the same time, macro asset behavior suggests a more defensive tone developing across markets, with strength in the dollar and continued demand for gold alongside elevated volatility in crude oil.

Breadth data reinforces the shift. The percentage of stocks above their 50- and 200-day moving averages has fallen sharply, while bullish percent indices have moved into bear-confirmed status for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Importantly, however, the market is not yet at extreme levels. Major indices are only modestly below recent highs and several indicators remain far from deeply oversold territory. This suggests the market may still be in a process of repricing risk rather than experiencing a full capitulation move.

For now, the message from the charts remains consistent:

Go slow. Be patient. Manage risk.

Looking ahead, traders will be watching PPI on Wednesday and the FOMC interest rate decision later that afternoon, both of which could influence market direction and volatility in the week ahead.

References & Chart Resources

Chart School

https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school

The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective

Relative Strength – What Is It Really?

Take the analysis further

If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Show notes:

Summary

• Major indices continue drifting lower below declining short-term moving averages

• Nasdaq remains stuck in a wide multi-week range with no breakout

• Former leaders (DIA and IWM) have rolled over after failed breakouts

• Small caps briefly reached correction territory (~10% from highs)

• Global equities and emerging markets losing momentum

• Bonds gave back recent gains and no longer showing leadership

• Crude oil experienced an extremely sharp move higher, now consolidating

• Semiconductors facing resistance from AVWAP and the 50-day moving average

• Biotech showing relative strength in tight consolidation

• Software bounce losing momentum near overhead AVWAP resistance

• Mega-cap stocks consolidating bearishly in an intermediate downtrend

• Environment characterized by failed moves, volatility, and lack of directional follow-through

• Current approach: trade smaller, remain patient, and prioritize risk management

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

Over the past week I shared several posts about Alphatrends and the opportunity to join Brian Shannon and me inside the community.

I appreciate everyone who took the time to read, watch the videos, and consider it.

A sincere thank you to those who decided to join us. I’m looking forward to working with you inside the service.

For everyone else here, thank you as always for being part of this Trading Adventure and following my work. I will be focused on an Alphatrends subscriber Q&A session the rest of today. So one quick look at the roadmap is included below, and you’re next complete Market Update will be posted tomorrow. Then, regular market notes and charts will continue as usual.

And if you ever decide you’d like to take a deeper look at the Alphatrends service, you can learn more any time at:

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Thanks again.

Andy

The Roadmap

Zooming out to the 130-minute timeframe helps smooth some of the noise from the past several trading sessions.

• SPY has reclaimed a flat 5-day moving average and is attempting to build a higher high. If that occurs, the next thing to watch will be whether price can follow with a higher low to begin rebuilding short-term structure.

• QQQ is probing the year-to-date anchored VWAP, which makes this area particularly notable. Like SPY, the early step would be a higher high followed by a higher low, though that structure is not confirmed yet.

• IWM and DIA, which had been leadership groups earlier this year, still have more work to do. Both remain below more steeply declining 5-day moving averages, and their year-to-date anchors remain overhead, meaning they still need to play some catch-up.

Progress, but no material change in market structure yet.

For now, the market is attempting to stabilize after last week’s volatility. Whether that develops into something more constructive will depend on whether these early structural improvements can hold.

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

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Show notes:

For several weeks I’ve been pointing out subtle cracks developing beneath the surface of this market.

This week those cracks widened.

SPY broke meaningfully below its now-declining 10-week moving average, while QQQ is testing its 40-week. Leadership has faded as the Dow and small caps give up relative strength, and several overseas markets are beginning to roll over after strong advances.

Under the surface, participation is weakening as fewer stocks remain above key moving averages. At the same time, high-yield bonds have broken down and several leadership groups are showing signs of distribution.

There are still pockets of strength. Software (IGV), which I highlighted last week as a potential bounce candidate, rallied sharply and is now more than 15% off its recent lows. But the broader message from the charts is one of increasing caution as the market environment shifts.

In this week’s video we review:

• The breakdown in SPY and the key levels to watch next

• QQQ test of the 40-week moving average

• Weakening leadership across indices and sectors

• International markets and commodities

• Breadth and participation signals

• What this shift could mean heading into next week

Looking ahead, traders will be watching several key economic reports, including CPI on Wednesday and PCE on Friday, along with earnings from Oracle and Adobe.

The key takeaway: respect the trend, stay disciplined, and let price confirm the next move.

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Details here → https://alphatrends.net/welcomeandy/

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.