An $AAPL a Day
The Markets
Rate cuts? What rate cuts?
Yesterday, the FOMC announced that it would keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged, as expected. In the press conference, Jerome Powell commented, “Inflation is still too high,” “We are keeping an eye on the jobs market,” and “They would slow down the rate of balance sheet reduction.”
Stocks had the usual overreaction followed by a quick reversal.
SPY 2-minute chart
Fed Days are fun.
With that news now in the past, the focus has shifted to Apple earnings this evening and then Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow morning — a key component of the “We are keeping an eye on the jobs market” statement.
AAPL has been a dog this year and has fought its way back up to the declining 50-day MA again ahead of tonight's earnings report. The options market is pricing in approximately a $7.00 move.
If higher, that would take the stock back to the 100 and 200-day MAs and a significant support/resistance area.
If it goes lower, it will be back near the recent lows, and the chart will look like absolute garbage once again.
Save us, Tim Apple.
The Charts
SPY has successfully defended the year-to-date AVWAP for two consecutive days. Today, it closed at the 8-day MA, with the 21-day MA sloping downward just above. It must recapture those levels to turn the short-term trend back to positive status.
QQQ has a wide daily range but still fits in the inside day. Short-term it also needs to get back over the 8 and 21-day MAs. On a slightly longer timeframe, it has the potential for a bear flag pattern that, if completed, would give a measured move price objective near the 200-day MA at $398.
If the jobs data tomorrow morning is bearish for the market, look for this pattern to be confirmed.
IWM is holding close to the YTD AVWAP and the very sticky $197-$200 pivot support/resistance area that we’ve been watching since January 2022. It can not seem to get far from this area for long.
There is no short-term trend at this time, as the 8 and 21-day MAs are converging at the current price. Likewise, there is no medium-term trend, as the 50-day MA is flat. Finally, the 200-day MA has a faint rise. We’ll see if it can push the price higher.
DIA More of the same. Choppy, sideways action without any short or medium-term trend.
TLT flatlining for two weeks. Overall, the trend is lower. So, technically, this is a bearish consolidation pattern.
DXY US Dollar futures heading lower and losing the 21-day MA before reaching the $107 pivot resistance level.
BTCUSD is finding some support at the YTD AVWAP.
The Trade
The indexes remain range-bound and without directional momentum. There have been, and will likely continue to be, trade opportunities in very specific setups on very specific stocks.
In other words, now is a time to be very specific, focusing on individual stocks or sectors with a good technical setup and a catalyst to get them moving.
Doing less is also a tactic — fewer positions, smaller size.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), an SEC-registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.
Statements in this article represent that person’s opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.
Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual, or it may reflect some other consideration. Readers of this article should consider this when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.
All investments are subject to the risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, or other qualified investors before making any investment decision.
POSITION DISCLOSURE
May 2, 2024, 4:00 PM
Long: ENVX, GOOGL0503C175, IMNM, SMCI0503P700, SNAP, TSLA, VKTX0621C85
Short:
Options symbols are denoted as follows:
Ticker, Date, Call/Put, Strike Price
Example: VXX1218C30 = VXX 12/18 Call with a $30 strike