Trading Adventures

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April 18, 2022 Weekly Start

www.trading-adventures.com

April 18, 2022 Weekly Start

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

Andrew Moss, CMT
Apr 18, 2022
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April 18, 2022 Weekly Start

www.trading-adventures.com

Last week’s market review assigned a “guilty until proven innocent” status. Today’s action was sleepy and range-bound. The market hasn’t proven anything bullish yet.

There is much recent bullish commentary regarding:

  • Sentiment — extremely low levels like we’re seeing now have been contrarian indicators and can signal a bounce

Twitter avatar for @AAIISentiment
AAII SentimentSurvey @AAIISentiment
AAII Sentiment Survey: *Bullish sentiment this week ranks among the 10th lowest readings in the survey's history *Bearish sentiment is again at an unusually high level aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Image
1:15 PM ∙ Apr 14, 2022
164Likes64Retweets
  • Seasonality — the month of April is historically one of the strongest of the year

Twitter avatar for @AlmanacTrader
StockTrader'sAlmanac @AlmanacTrader
DJIA Streak of 16 Consecutive Positive Aprils in Jeopardy - As of today’s close, DJIA is down 0.77% in April. S&P 500 is now down 3.06%. NASDAQ has had the most challenging April so far, off 6.25%. Russell 2000 is down as well, but more inline...
tmblr.coDJIA Streak of 16 Consecutive Positive Aprils in JeopardyDJIA Streak of 16 Consecutive Positive Aprils in...
9:38 PM ∙ Apr 18, 2022
11Likes4Retweets
  • Inflation — Some early indications suggest that it may have peaked

Twitter avatar for @RyanDetrick
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick
One positive development that most aren't talking about is the big drop in shipping rates. Shanghai ==> LA, NY, or Rotterdam are down nearly 28% on avg from the peak last Sept. Yet another clue that inflation (and supply chains) could be about to see some major improvement.
Image
7:26 PM ∙ Apr 18, 2022
148Likes46Retweets

But the charts just aren’t confirming any of that.

$SPY is trading right around the March low AVWAP. Losing this level would add to the bearish case.

A rally into the close helped the daily candle not look as bad. And that price action continued after 4:00 PM on James Bullard’s (Federal Reserve) comments about future rate hikes, GDP, and unemployment.

Let’s see if that strength is still there in the morning.

In the meantime, stay on your toes and manage your risk.

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April 18, 2022 Weekly Start

www.trading-adventures.com
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