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I write about charts & trading | Chartered Market Technician, Pro w/ T3 Trading Group, former Port. Mgr | simplifying technical analysis | not investment advice

August 12, 2022 Weekend market review/preview

Andrew Moss, CMT

Aug 12, 2022

Welcome to this week's edition of the Weekend Market Review.

This week started of a bit shaky as the action on Monday left the SPY 0.00%↑ QQQ 0.00%↑ and IWM 0.00%↑ all putting in potential reversal candles just ahead of some resistance.

Tuesday gave some follow-through and confirmation of the reversal, but it never felt especially powerful as it was becoming clear that there wouldn't be any serious moves by traders until after the CPI report came out Wednesday morning.

This worked out well with expectations. If you recall from last weekend's review -

"The bull case from here would be another day or two of price consolidation just below these resistance levels followed by a break higher sometime next week."

That's exactly what we got.

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The CPI number came in a bit lighter than previously expected and the fuse was lit. From the Tuesday low to the Friday high the $SPY advanced +4.10%.

SPY 0.00%↑ -- $417 resistance is behind us for now, as is the ATH AVWAP, and all eyes are on $429-$430 and then the downward sloping 200-day SMA at $431.83. Add one more factor in the form of a downtrend line and next week could have several challenges for $SPY bulls.

QQQ 0.00%↑ - NASDAQ 100 has a similar situation

IWM 0.00%↑ - Over the $200 psychological level, as well as the ATH AVWAP and the 200 Day SMA

$VIX -- continued its very orderly decline

$USD -- The dollar also still provides some relief as it moves lower from this trendline

USO 0.00%↑ -- Oil is bucking the relief trend a bit as we see the potential bear flag that was setting up on the daily chart has been negated.

With the CPI report behind us, and earnings season slowing down a bit, next week is likely to be a little more subdued. And conventional thinking says the market has got to take a rest somewhere along the way. But as always, we never know what's next. So just keep watching the charts and riding the trends while they are here.

I will be traveling to a family reunion this weekend so weekly charts will go on Twitter Sunday instead of Saturday.

Be sure to head to https://twitter.com/Andy__Moss to catch them.

Now here are a few notes from the week to close.

Have a great weekend!

My week on Twitter

Baseball is fun. #Toastman makes it even funner