August 26 Weekend Market Review/Preview
Bears party in Jackson Hole
Nasty selloff after Jay Powell addressed the conference in Jackson Hole
His comments were hawkish indicating the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten economic conditions by raising rates further.
Not exactly surprising. Still, the impact on the market was sharp and immediate.
Do you think people were waiting to see what he had to say?
A precarious predicament
So where does that leave us? Much more bearish looking than this time a week ago.
From last week’s review -
The S&P 500 has been very strong but this week couldn’t get over the 200-day MA. It’s now resting on the volume-weighted price anchored to the all-time highs (ATH AVWAP). The bull case is to hold and bounce from $420 as that's been such a heavily watched level. Below that watch for a move to test the 21-day EMA, and if that doesn't hold $410 may help.
So here we are, looking up at SPY 410, QQQ 310, and IWM 190.
Can prices find support and resume the move higher?
Or do they break lower signaling “risk off” once again?
You don’t need to be a technical analyst or a chartist to see things are pointing lower.
Even if support does hold, today’s action results in a very ominous-looking red candle. Getting above the high of today negating this candle will be the first order of business for the bulls. The sooner it happens (if it can happen) the better.
Down below, we’re looking at the 50-day moving averages, then the July 26 pivot, and finally the June 16/17 low as potential support.
$VIX up over 17% today ⚠
$DXY looking for a breakout
Quite a nasty day
As always; know your time frames and no your outs.
Risk management is critical in markets like this.
And don’t get in a hurry.
Kurt Vonnegut is one of my favorite authors. And by all accounts (that I’ve read anyway) a nice and funny guy.
The Sirens of Titan
If This Isn't Nice, What Is?: Advice for the Young
Great place to start if you haven’t read them yet.
This story is worthy advice for young people.
And while we’re talking about writing…
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As usual, I will be on Twitter tomorrow morning with a look at some weekly charts. Come chime in and let me know what you’re looking for or what charts you’d like to see.
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