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The initial response to the addition of paid subscriptions has been remarkable. My sincerest Thanks to all who have already signed up.
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Now, let’s get to work.
The Markets
Large caps are modestly higher today, while small caps rebound. But the big story is Bitcoin and the related names. BTCUSD is adding to the breakout move, trading near $70k. And its taking the proxies, miners, and related names with it.
HUT +15%
WULF +10%
MARA +11%
IBIT +5%
Is this just the beginning?
It could be. The weekly chart shows incredible upside potential for Bitcoin.
2023 brought an 8-month consolidation, resulting in the 10-week MA touching the 40-week MA, leading to a massive breakout.
In 2024, we’re seeing almost identical action.
The previous breakout move went up more than 140% in about six months. If Bitcoin trades above $72,000, I don’t want to be on the sidelines.
We have no concrete way of knowing if another move would be the same. But if it’s even remotely similar, Bitcoin could see a huge rise for the rest of this year and into 2025.
The Charts
SPY is green for the day but couldn’t hold on to gains to close back above the 8-day MA. The 21-day MA is still close by at $577.30 and could be tested as we deal with uncertainty around earnings and election day.
QQQ stayed within Friday’s range, closing basically flat, +0.02%. It is above the 8-day MA to keep some short-term momentum. But stay patient and see if it holds.
IWM regained some strength after hitting the 50-day MA last week. If we’re looking for choppiness and heightened volatility in the large-cap stocks, we should expect even more of that for small-caps.
DIA remains below both the 8 and 21-day MAs and is testing the consolidation range from several weeks ago. We’ll see if it wants to touch the 50-day MA and the bottom of the range. Or does earnings strength from a few key names (AAPL, CAT, INTC, MCD, MSFT, V, all report this week) take it back higher?
TLT continues to get hit, touching the $91.47 pivot today. RSI is low, near 30, and showing a slight divergence. But there’s no reason to rush into bonds here.
DXY US Dollar futures are losing some steam ahead of the $104.56 pivot and have been consolidating for four days. Now, we need to see if this action results in a reversal. Or does it break out and keep moving higher?
BTCUSD is breaking higher from the bull flag pattern, hitting exactly $70k today. The price action here continues to look very constructive across multiple time frames.
The Trade
Even though the daily result is positive, the market remains choppy.
Notice the ranges between the week-to-date anchored VWAPs🟣 and the 5-day MAs🔵 — except IWM, which is above both.
65-minute charts
That could easily continue as we await many major earnings announcements this week —
AAPL AMD AMZN GOOGL LLY META MSFT PYPL UBER
are all reporting.
Then we’ll get Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Followed by Election Day next week. Expect some increased volatility.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities. Paid subscribers will get a more detailed look in another post.
Once again, Thank You for the amazing, early response to the paid subscription announcement. I appreciate all who’ve signed up. And I look forward to hearing from many more of you.
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The Inner Circle
The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. It’s the group I’ve been working and trading with since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.
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Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.
The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.