Breakouts, Not Blowouts
Small caps and the Dow surge while the rest of the market tightens up. A session for focused trades and selective follow-through.
The Markets
The tape may have looked quiet on the surface, but underneath, some key pieces moved in a big way.
The Dow and small caps broke out with force. SPY held its ground just below the highs. And while tech pulled back, the selloff in QQQ was bought steadily and left no lasting damage.
It wasn’t a session full of fireworks, but there was plenty to pay attention to.
Let’s break it down.
The Charts
SPY continues to do its job.
Today marked the sixth straight session of the index pressing its upper Bollinger Band higher, even without making a new high. Slight consolidation just beneath the recent peak as RSI tiptoes into an overbought condition. Volume was lighter, which fits the short holiday week. This still reads like digestion, not distribution.
QQQ saw a more pronounced pullback, but not one that breaks the trend.
The Nasdaq was the outlier today, selling off while the other major indices held steady or advanced. But the dip held above Friday’s pivot low, remained well above the February breakout level, and stayed comfortably above the rising 8-day MA. RSI backed off from overbought, and volume came in slightly above average. The selling was steady, but so was the response—buyers stepped in without panic.
IWM finally showed a more convincing move.
After days of grinding, small caps pushed above the 200-day MA with some authority. Price dipped to the 8-day MA early, found support, and rallied through the $220 level before settling back to close above the upper Bollinger Band. It didn’t finish at the highs, but the action was constructive. Volume was strong, and RSI has room to run—this move looks real, even if it cooled into the close.
DIA continues to lead with authority.
Today was the third straight session where price held entirely above the upper Bollinger Band—a rare show of strength. The move pushed well past the $440.69 pivot from early March, as the Dow 30 index gains 6% over the last six sessions. Price is now approaching the highs, and RSI has crossed into overbought territory at 72. The trend is powerful, but increasingly extended. Still, no signs of slowing just yet.
TLT continues its quiet climb.
Bonds extended their move with another session testing the 100-day MA—a level that’s held the past two days. Progress here has helped ease rate pressure, which in turn has supported equity strength. The next question is whether TLT can break through this level and clear the $88.68 pivot overhead. For now, the trend is supportive, but not resolved.
DXY DX1! Dollar Futures continue to leak lower.
This has been a steady, persistent move, not a collapse, but a controlled decline. RSI remains subdued, without reaching oversold levels, and both the Bollinger Bands and key moving averages are clearly trending downward. There’s no sign of strength returning yet.
BTCUSD After slipping below the 8-day MA, price is now testing a confluence of the 21-day MA, 50-day MA, the recent pivot low, and AVWAP—all clustered near the $104,000 to $105,000 area. If it breaks, the next likely destination is closer to $99,000. Structure remains intact for now, but it’s a moment worth watching.
One more session before the break. If today was about selectivity, tomorrow may be about positioning.
The Trade
This isn’t a market that requires heroics. But it does demand focus.
The breakout in IWM adds credibility to the recent broadening we’ve been tracking. DIA continues to lead with undeniable momentum. SPY is resting near highs. Even with QQQ pulling back, the larger trend hasn’t broken—just shifted tone.
This is a tape where the best setups aren’t hidden. They’re showing up, holding levels, and offering entries that make sense.
But discipline still matters.
The right names are rewarding patient entries. The wrong ones are fading quickly. And while trends remain intact, they’re starting to thin. That makes trimming strength and respecting stops just as important as identifying the next breakout.
With one session left before the holiday, there’s no need to overplay it. Let the market do what it wants to do—and be ready when it matters.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Thanks for your time. Well written and informative post.