CPI Pop Fuels Steady Rally — Tech & Crypto Lead the Charge
Equities grind higher as cooler inflation data and strong sector leadership keep bulls in control.
The Markets
A cooler CPI reading lit a fire under equities and crypto, sparking a gap-and-go start.
Stocks moved sharply higher at 8:30 on the news, pulled back modestly into the open, then surged again before a mid-morning dip (SPY) marked the day’s low.
From there, it was steady, persistent buying into the close.
The Dow held firm, small caps extended their rebound, and big tech stayed strong with AAPL pushing toward its $231 pivot and TSLA finding support on the morning dip.
In crypto, BTC’s overnight surge above $122K held most of its gains, while ETH made another push higher toward the all-time high at $4,867.
The dollar softened, as did bonds, and housing names extended their strength.
The market’s tone remained constructive — not without pockets of rotation, but firmly supported by the day’s bullish catalyst.
Another fun fact: SPY has alternated between positive and negative days for eight sessions in a row. How long will the rhythm continue?
The Charts
SPY continues the steady grind higher, emphasizing the strength by closing at a new high today. Today’s candle will nudge the Bollinger Bands higher, and RSI still has room before hitting overbought status.
The uptrend continues.
QQQ with another new closing high after regrouping a bit yesterday. RSI at 68, volume is about average, and the Bollinger Bands and moving averages are all rising.
The uptrend continues.
IWM was the leader today, jumping strongly from the 21-day MA and closing above the pivot of a few weeks ago. A new high for the year isn’t far away now.
DIA lags the others, but it is back over all the key moving averages now. $451.55 is still the pivot high to watch.
TLT sank back down to the 21 and 50-day MAs. Some support for today, but bonds still need to clear pivots and the 200-day MA just under $89 to change the situation.
DX1! Dollar futures have had heavy resistance and the AVWAP from the May pivot high. The recent attempt higher was thwarted by the 100-day MA. Now it's at risk of losing all MAs again, which would likely result in a move back to recent lows.
BTCUSD hit $112k yesterday and is holding most of those gains well so far today. But, the next move higher can not truly begin until price moves above this box, and stays there.
ETHUSD continues to surge beyond the $4091 with sights set on the all-time highs at $4867.
LTCUSD is rejoining the crypto craze, too, jumping out of the recent 9-day consolidation and up to the $130s. It has a pivot at $147.22 to reach for.
The Trade
Sometimes the market hands you a clear road map — but you still have to trust the path.
Today’s action reinforced that when the setup is right, the conviction has to follow. With key levels respected and momentum building off supportive data, the near-term bias tilts constructive.
The task now is managing that optimism: pressing advantage when the market confirms, and stepping aside quickly when it doesn’t.
The next few sessions will test both patience and precision.
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