Show notes:
Market Update – February 5 Recap
The market continues to break down beneath the surface.
SPY and QQQ are confirming short-to-intermediate downtrends with clear sequences of lower highs and lower lows. Price is now below declining 8- and 21-day moving averages, and testing the rising 50-day MA for the second time in two weeks.
Crypto has rolled over hard. Bitcoin dropped over 12% intraday with heavy volume, and major coins like Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple are following. BTC has been cut nearly in half from its October highs.
This follows a sequence we’ve tracked for several weeks:
Internals looked strong in mid-January
MAG7 were diverging and showing early signs of weakness
Rotation into staples, metals, materials, and energy intensified
Breadth remained positive until late January
SPY printed new highs, but leadership was shifting
That structure has now broken down
Several mega caps are now losing key levels. Amazon and Microsoft are below their 200-day MAs. Google and Meta are mixed. NVIDIA and Tesla are back at support zones, with the group overall losing influence.
We’re watching key anchored VWAP levels, major pivot zones, and the 50-day MA across indices. A reversal would require a new sequence of higher lows and higher highs — beginning with a reclaim of the 5-day MA. Until then, sellers remain in control.
The message hasn’t changed:
Respect risk. Let price lead. Watch for structure to change before acting.
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