Halfway There
And A Tribute To The Great Art Cashin
The Markets
The first day of December is officially in the books, and while there were mixed results in the markets, the NASDAQ had a solid up day.
Bitcoin slipped down a couple of percent, hovering around $95,000, and Tesla is was flirting with a breakout in the $360 range. That changed when news hit that a Delaware judge rejected Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package. The stock moved down to $349 briefly on the break.
The dollar experienced a slight bounce from the 21-day moving average, but the eight-day pivot area has kept any significant movements in check for now.
Mega-cap stocks were favored, with companies like Amazon, Advanced Micro Devices, and Meta leading the charge higher, significantly outperforming both the S&P 500 and small-cap indices.
A handful of earnings reports are coming out this week, but the focus will be on jobs data. We’ll get the JOLTS report tomorrow and non-farm payrolls on Friday. Otherwise, the economic calendar is pretty light.
On a sad note, I want to pay tribute to Art Cashin, who passed away today. He was a Wall Street legend and one of the few guests on CNBC whose insights always enticed me to stop and listen. He was 83.
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The Bull Market Life Cycle
Before we move on to the usual charts, here is a look at an average bull market's life cycle and expectancy. Grant Hawkridge shared some intriguing data this morning, reminding us that the current bull run is still in its early stages.
His graph below demonstrates that the average rise for a bull market in the SP500 results in a 153.4% percentage gain while taking 1134 days to get there.
The current bull run, which started Oct. 12, 2022, is only 535 days old, producing a 68.6% return (537 trading days at 69.05% updated through today).
See the following chart for another look at where we currently stand relative to the average.
Expect the unexpected
We’ll never know the outcome or the path we travel to get there until it is written into history (and the charts). But if the average is any indication, we could still be in the first half of the current bull market.
Food for thought. Now, let’s chew on the charts.
The Charts
SPY gained 0.18% today, logging another new all-time high as the key moving averages are in the proper order and following the price higher.
QQQ also set a new all-time high, closing up 1.09% at $515.29. Notice the robust support provided near the $503 level, where there is a pivot level, the 21-day MA, and several anchored VWAPs.
IWM was down slightly on the day but is still consolidating the recent advance very well, staying close to previous highs.
DIA was also slightly red on the day while maintaining the recent strength very well.
TLT tested the recent pivot area near $93 and bounced, staying above the 50 and 200-day MAs. Continued progress.
DXY US Dollar futures also got a bounce after testing a support level in the 21-day MA. However, the 8-day MA and pivot area were able to keep a lid on it. We remain on watch for a continuation lower.
BTCUSD continues in the bullish consolidation range as the 21-day MA catches up to price. Keep this on the watchlist for another potential breakout.
The Trade
Rotation and consolidation are healthy.
Buying power is shifting back to the mega-cap tech stocks today while other areas take a break but remain at high levels. This is the most bullish thing a market can do.
Keep looking for entries and opportunities while managing risk in open positions.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
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