Inflation Cools
Inflation Cools
Leap Day Market Update - February 29, 2024
The News
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data was announced this morning, coming in below expectations, signaling that inflation is coming down.
As defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis:
A measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.
This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation due to its focus on items that normal people are actually buying.
The breakdown:
The Markets
Markets reacted with a strong bounce following the 8:30 AM announcement. However, selling took over shortly after the opening of the regular session.
That still leaves us with a positive day, though well of the highs and with the small cap breakout in question.
The charts tell the story.
Special Announcement
But first, an update on recent announcements:
The addition of a premium section to Trading Adventures has been postponed.
All the support and pledges are greatly appreciated. However, the current articles and analyses will continue as they are; free.
Thank you for your continued readership.
The Charts
SPY Monday’s “Rest Day” has led to more sideways action while we waited for the PCE data. Price is now moving back toward the recent high after nearly touching the 8-day MA. The uptrend continues.
QQQ follows the same pattern. A bullish day just ahead of recent highs.
IWM gapped much higher after the news at 8:30 AM this morning but had trouble staying there. All eyes on Wall Street were watching the $205.49 breakout, which is probably why it didn’t hold. Much too soon to call it a failed move, however.
See what the coming days have in store.
DIA is building the stairway higher after testing the 8-day MA.
TLT was able to recapture the 21-day MA after spending several weeks below. A move out of the congestion zone (shaded area), above the 200-day, and then 50-day MA are the next tests.
DXY Dollar futures technically show a breakout pattern, though price is not running away.
BTCUSD hits pause on its massive breakout run and so far remains well within the upper end of the move. Look for some consolidation now.
The Closing Bell
Weekly and monthly charts on Saturday.
See you there.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), an SEC-registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.
Statements in this article represent that person’s opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.
Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual, or it may reflect some other consideration. Readers of this article should consider this when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.
All investments are subject to the risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, or other qualified investors before making any investment decision.
POSITION DISCLOSURE
February 29, 2023, 4:00 PM
Long: AMD0308C190, ENPH, IMNM, IOT0308C37, IWM0315C205, LABU, QQQ0301P430, VKTX, XBI0315C100
Short:
Options symbols are denoted as follows:
Ticker, Date, Call/Put, Strike Price
Example: VXX1218C30 = VXX 12/18 Call with a $30 strike