Inflation Data Higher Than Expected
Market Update
The News
The latest inflation data is in the books. CPI and PPI were both announced higher than estimates.
CPI came out Tuesday at 0.4% Month over Month and 3.2% Year over Year — higher than estimates of 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY.
This morning, PPI had a similar result: 0.6% Month over Month and 1.6% Year over Year versus estimates of 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY.
The Markets
This is enough to raise questions about the potential depth and timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which put a damper on stocks.
All the major indexes are red for the day, though still above Monday’s prices (except IWM). So, the same support levels still apply.
The Charts
SPY tested the 8-day MA. Lower, there is an AVWAP, then the 21-day MA near $505, and another pivot at $503.50.
QQQ tested the 21-day MA and closed below the 8-day. There is a gap below the $433.71 pivot extending down to $425.70. A swing low AVWAP and the 50-day MA are also near the bottom of that gap.
IWM led stocks lower today and closed well below the 21-day MA, taking momentum out of the picture for now. If it stays below this level, the breakout will be considered a failure, and more caution would be prudent. The $200 round number level and the 50-day MA just below there are key support levels now.
DIA traded near highs this morning before selling down below the 8 and 21-day MAs. It managed to rally back above those for the close, but it still has the 8 crossing below the 21 soon to dampen momentum.
TLT has moved lower all week so far, introducing renewed interest rate pressures.
DXY US Dollar Futures $DX1! gapped lower to support this morning before rallying all day. The move did stop at the 8-day MA. We’ll see in the coming days if it can stay lower or if it continues to rally.
BTCUSD took a break today to retest the 8-day MA and the breakout level. This allowed the RSI to get back below 70 to resolve the overbought status. We’ll see if support holds or if it needs to cool off further.
The Closing Bell
So we’re starting to see recurrent selling. SPY is testing its 8-day MA. QQQ is testing its 21-day MA, while the IWM is well below.
Support levels matter, helping to manage risk and spot opportunities. So, keep checking the charts and levels, and the updates will keep coming.
Next up are the Weekly Charts on Saturday morning. See you then.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), an SEC-registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.
Statements in this article represent that person’s opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.
Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual, or it may reflect some other consideration. Readers of this article should consider this when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.
All investments are subject to the risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, or other qualified investors before making any investment decision.
POSITION DISCLOSURE
March 14, 2024, 4:00 PM
Long: IMNM, MNMD0315C10, VKTK0419C80, XBI0315C92.50
Short:
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