March 27, 2022 Market review/preview

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $TLT $VIX

Weekly Chart Time

$SPY

- Up ~9% in two weeks

- Back above the 10/40wk SMAs

- Exactly at the middle of the @bbands

- RSI back over 50

https://share.trendspider.com/chart/SPY/339539bk0we

$QQQ

- ~13%+ low to high over two weeks

- Back into 10/40wk SMA cloud

- Strong bounce from the Covid low AVWAP and the 38.2% Fib retracement

- RSI just back over the 50 mark

- ATH AVWAP is just overhead

https://share.trendspider.com/chart/QQQ/339539sefdc

$IWM

- ~8%+ low to high over two weeks

- Back into the 10/40wk SMA cloud

- At bottom of the sideways channel

- Solid bounce from the Covid low AVWAP and the 38.2% Fib retracement

- $210 looks like resistance so far

- $211 is the ATH AVWAP

https://share.trendspider.com/chart/IWM/339539bn6x3

$TLT

- After showing a hammer last week that looked like it wanted to retest, TLT has confirmed the breakdown through 133.50-135

- RSI is low, oversold, and falling

https://share.trendspider.com/chart/TLT/339539bso4m

$VIX

- 3 consecutive lower weekly highs - 1/21/22 - 2/21/22 - 3/7/22

- Now back to 20

https://share.trendspider.com/chart/VIX/339539cirql

What next?

The sideways consolidation was actually more upward continuation. More layers of probability continue to show up adding to the bullish case. I remain cautious of "too far too fast", but in a bullish/buy-the-dip mindset and will work to choose entries carefully.

Adding fuel to the fire

Thanks to @Pdunuwila and @TheChartReport for pointing these out. This is the best, free, daily technical summary out there.

https://www.thechartreport.com/03-24-22/

Jonathan Harrier, CMT @jonathanharrier

The 5-day Rate of Change on $SPX $SPY was 6.2% on 3/18 & 6.9% on 3/21. Since 1950, when the index experienced a 5-day ROC above 6% for 2 consecutive days, the forward results are compelling. Signals are bunched around weak periods. 94% higher a year later.

Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen

Nasdaq-100 $NDX bullish signal: The 52-week Williams%R oscillator became "oversold" 2 weeks ago, the 7th time since 2003. This indicates that price has become "oversold" relative to it's 1-year range. It signaled a multi-year low for the Nasdaq in 4/6 cases. It gets better...

Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen

The forward-looking returns for the Nasdaq-100 after becoming oversold, on average: 1-month later: +2.15% 3-months: +11.42% 6-months: +16.13% 1-year: +24.68% 3-year: +55.88% The September 2008 signal is the notable exception to the bullish signal (in the short-term).

I know, you know - "Past performance does not guarantee future results." There are no guarantees. But this helps the probabilities.

Good luck this week and trade 'em well.