Market Update – July 31, 2025
Meta & Microsoft rally — but the broader market stumbles.
Note: I’m off the desk today and tomorrow for one last long weekend family trip to the lake before the big college move-in day. But, with so much happening in the market, I wanted to send a quick look at the charts. However, there will not be a Weekly Chart article on Saturday.
Today’s “Good morning ☕” from X.
The Markets
META and MSFT crushed earnings expectations — jumping roughly +11% and +4% — but the celebration didn’t spread far. Outside of those names, the market lost steam into the close, with other sectors seeing little follow‑through.
The heaviest hitters of the week — the Fed decision, major Big Tech earnings, and PCE inflation data — are now in the rearview. The only catalyst left on this week’s crowded calendar is Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow morning. Positioning and sentiment suggest many traders are content to wait for that number before making their next move.
After the bell, AAPL traded higher and AMZN lower on their earnings releases. Meanwhile, SPY closed below its 8‑day moving average, QQQ is testing it, the Dollar and VIX pushed higher, and TLT tagged its 100‑day.
Here’s a look at the charts.
The Charts
SPY closed below its 8‑day simple moving average for the first time in weeks, a notable short‑term momentum shift.
QQQ is still testing that same level.
IWM and DIA finished below their 21‑day SMAs, showing continued underperformance from small caps and industrials.
TLT tested its 100‑day SMA today before backing off — a sign that bonds are still trying to find their footing in this rate environment.
DX1! (Dollar) and VIX both pushed higher, adding pressure.
BTCUSD remains flat but not broken. Tech leadership is working, but crypto is currently sidelined.
The Trade
It’s still a bull market, but it’s now showing short‑term cracks. Earnings wins from mega‑caps are being offset by broader weakness, rising volatility, and a firm dollar.
With NFP ahead tomorrow, the focus is on risk control: tighten exposure, respect key moving averages, and avoid chasing until price confirms new momentum.
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