Near And Far
Near And Far
Looking at the end of the month and the quarter
The Markets — Near
Stocks stayed true to form today, exhibiting choppiness, volatility, and misdirection as we closed the month of September and the third quarter of 2024.
Prices started the day testing the 5-day moving averages (blue lines) and moved well below before mounting a sharp late-day rally. The resulting close left all four indexes back above that key moving average, with 3 of 4 still rising. Only IWM has a 5dma that is flat to downward sloping.
Short-term momentum is still in place.
Far
On the far end of the spectrum, the monthly charts show many strong uptrends. There’s nothing especially shocking or insightful on the charts, but I do find the long-term perspective to be a useful part of the process.
SP 500 puts in another new monthly high.
NASDAQ Composite also logs a new monthly high close, though it hasn’t yet surpassed the absolute high made in July.
Dow Jones Industrial Average new highs.
Russell 2000 has two consecutive months of strong buying after prices have dipped, as evidenced by the long lower shadows on the last two candles. It’s choppy and erratic and hasn’t yet hit new high prices. But it has refused to break down, too. A monthly close above 2360 should open significantly more upside.
FXI China was a big winner this month, jumping 20% and getting back over the anchored VWAP from the February 2021 pivot high.
AGG Aggregate Bonds are working on a change of character by rising above a pivot area and the longer moving average.
TLT Treasury Bonds moved up to a key AVWAP and reversed.
HYG High-yield bonds moved into a trend zone. We’ll see if they find resistance here or move on through.
DX1! US Dollar Futures are testing a key support area. As noted many times, a breakdown and push lower would be a significant tailwind for stock prices moving higher.
BTCUSD This Bitcoin consolidation pattern will have explosive implications if it ever breaks higher.
GLD Gold isn’t slowing down yet.
SLV Silver is trying hard to keep up.
So, there’s a look at the really big picture. Again, nothing terribly surprising, except perhaps the relentless bid in Gold. But still, considering many different timeframes is a useful exercise.
Later this week, we’ll return to the regular format and look at daily charts and tradeable levels. We do have lots of employment data coming — JOLTs, Jobless Claims, and Nonfarm payrolls. So, those reports could shake things up.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.