Pinched
The $SPX is feeling the squeeze
Two things this afternoon before the usual Market Update, which will be out tomorrow.
The SP 500 has been range-bound and is now getting ‘pinched’ between two significant anchored VWAPs. I shared this chart this morning, and The Chart Report was kind enough to feature it as their Chart Of The Day in today’s edition.
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The Markets
Here’s the original chart, updated through today’s close.
SPX - The S&P 500
The bounce has been impressive. However, there can be no lasting resumption of an uptrend until price gets (and stays) above the AVWAP from the Feb. 19 pivot high.
We have several key earnings reports coming up this week that will drive the action.
From the Magnificent 7 — AAPL, AMZN, META, and MSFT.
Other top SP 500 names — CVX, HON, KO, MA, PFE, V, XOM
We’ll consider the effect of those results in our later Market Updates, which will be released on Tuesday and Thursday after the close.
To revisit, here are two charts from the April 9, 2025, Market Update, titled “Tariffs, Stocks, Bonds, Oil, The Dollar,” which forecasted the bounce potential.
from the article
Two More Charts
Both of these weekly charts make the case that we are in the right spot to look for a bounce. Here’s why:
Jan. '22 pivot high
Oct. '22 low AVWAP
Multiple fibonacci levels
Extremely oversold - RSI ~26
% of stocks above a 50/200-day MA is very low
Sentiment is in the gutter
Fear and Greed ~3
Soaring VIX
Imagine if we got the slightest bit of good news.
SPX Weekly
QQQ - Weekly
/end
The Trade
Here’s the action:
Watch the AVWAP pinch for a directional resolution
Be ready for either outcome
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***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
