Plan > Prepare > Proceed
Earnings Fade. Process Remains.
Nearly two years ago, I wrote a note ahead of NVDA earnings.
The market was waiting. Traders were speculating. Opinions were loud.
The message then was simple: Plan. Prepare. Proceed.
Today, NVDA earnings are behind us. The stock is reacting. The broader market is adjusting.
The headlines have changed.
The process has not.
The Market Context
Post-earnings reactions create movement. But movement only matters within structure.
When price is above a rising 5-day moving average, the short-term trend is intact. Don’t buy below a declining 5-day MA. Don’t short above a rising one.
We anticipate where the 5-day is headed. That keeps us aligned with momentum instead of fighting it.
Anchored VWAP provides additional clarity. When price holds above a rising AVWAP from a key event — earnings, a gap, a major pivot — it tells us buyers remain in control. When it fails, control shifts.
This AVWAP shows who’s in control.
We want alignment across timeframes. Daily trend, intermediate structure, and short-term momentum working together.
The Process
Plan
Identify the market type.
Trending.
Rotating.
Compressing.
Higher lows and expansion.
Or lower highs and supply overhead.
Aggression adjusts.
Position size adjusts.
Participation adjusts.
Each trade stands on its own merits.
Overall market structure frames the opportunity.
Trend first.
Always.
Prepare
Preparation means defining levels before emotion enters the equation.
Define the trigger.
Define the confirmation.
Define the line in the sand.
If price clears it — momentum accelerates.
If price loses it — structure breaks.
Risk is defined before entry.
Position size reflects the quality of the setup.
Respect risk first.
Stay consistent.
Stay disciplined.
Proceed
When the trigger confirms — execute.
Manage to structure.
Manage to plan.
Trim into strength.
Trail against higher lows.
Protect gains as the 5-day rises.
No prediction.
No guessing.
No drama.
Outcomes are uncertain.
Process is not.
Judge performance over a series of trades — never a single event.
The NVDA Lesson
Earnings are events.
Planning and process create the edge.
—
Traders who focused on guessing the number experienced stress.
Traders who focused on structure and price confirmation experienced the calm execution of a defined plan.
Above rising short-term averages and key AVWAP levels, momentum expands. Below them, it contracts.
That framework worked two years ago.
It works now.
It will work the next time volatility expands.
Refinement Through Study
Over the past several years, I’ve refined this framework through deeper study of trend, structure, and Anchored VWAP.
The 5-day as the primary trend filter.
Anchoring from meaningful events.
Multi-timeframe alignment.
The message remains consistent:
Define the trend.
Do not fight it.
Let price confirm.
Use Anchored VWAP to identify who is in control.
Price is the final authority.
Final Thought
Markets evolve. Technology evolves. Narratives evolve.
Process endures.
Plan with clarity.
Prepare with defined risk.
Proceed with discipline.
That is the edge.
Helping traders navigate markets with clarity and confidence begins there.
If this framework resonates with you, I’ll be sharing more tomorrow.
Alphatrends is re-opening the Welcome Andy bundle for a limited time, focused on structured education, practical tools, and experienced guidance you need to refine your process the right way.
Details will follow.
If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.
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