Pumping the brakes
Weekend Market Update July 14, 2023
Welcome to the Weekend Market Update. We’ll take the usual run through the charts. But first, I ask your indulgence for a brief invitation.
Tuesday afternoon, my colleague and moderator of The Inner Circle VTF, David Prince, will be hosting a webinar announcing his new options trading newsletter service.
Join us as he walks through the process of selecting the top trades for the week.
Click here to register for free. See you there!
The Market
I had a great conversation this morning with Chartered Market Technician, Chartered Financial Analyst, multi-time Dow Award winner, and author of the
Michael Gayed.Micheal is a very interesting person and always has a well-constructed, and sometimes polarizing view of the markets. We talked about stocks, bonds, inflation, and the credit event he says is looming.
A recording is available here.
Navigating Inflation and Stock Rallies: Andrew Moss Interview
And it will be up as a podcast soon on all the usual carriers.
Listen to Lead Lag Live on Spotify.
As for the market outlook, he and I shared similar views as we’re both focused on the facts — what is. And that is a strongly uptrending stock market.
There’s been nothing to change that yet. Seasonality and prior history suggest that with such a strong first half of the year, a strong second half of the year is the most likely outcome.
However, in the near term, there is a seasonal tendency for a decline over the next two to four weeks. Today’s charts indicate the potential beginning of that decline.
QQQ, NVDA, and others printed shooting star candles today, a reversal pattern.
The list of DeMark sell signals either triggering or close to doing so is long and growing
Prices are a bit extended above the 8 and 21-day moving averages
This doesn’t signal a drastic change or the end of the bull market. But it does tell us that it may be a good idea to slow down, take our foot off the gas, and maybe even pump the brakes.
Be ready. Maybe we get some better buying opportunities in the coming weeks.
The Charts
SPY continued above the breakout level making a new YTD high this morning before selling came in. Strong, but a little extended near term. A move to retest the breakout and 8-Day MA at $443, or even the 21-day MA at $439 could be likely.
QQQ moved well in early trading and then also found sellers. This shooting candle pattern would be confirmed with Monday’s prices staying under today’s low. Again, a retest of the 8 and/or 21-day MA looks likely.
IWM is still holding the gap higher and the congestion area. Small caps are still in favor and even had some buyers in the later part of the day.
DIA So close! But not yet out of the box.
And since I mentioned these in the Spaces conversation today:
DXY Expanding out to the weekly view here to see the bigger move. There is some room lower. But $99 ish is potential support.
VIX Volatility remains low.
The Closing Bell
As always, tomorrow morning we’ll take a look at the Weekend Weekly Charts. Come chime in on Twitter and let me know what you’d like to see.
Don’t forget Tuesday’s event with David Prince.
The service goes live next week. But there is a pre-launch discount available by signing up early.
Sign up now for a 33% discount.
The Disclosure
***This is NOT financial advice. NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”) a SEC registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.
Statements in this article represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.
It is possible that Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Readers of this article should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.
All investments are subject to the risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, or other qualified investors prior to making any investment decision.
POSITION DISCLOSURE
July 7, 2023, 4:00 PM
Long: RXRX08185C12.50
Short:
Options symbols are denoted as follows:
Ticker, Date, Call/Put, Strike Price
Example: VXX1218C30 = VXX 12/18 Call with a $30 strike