The Markets
Stocks are mostly green to start the week as the odds of another Trump Presidency surged after a failed assassination attempt Saturday at a rally in Butler, PA.
Though positive on the day, the major indexes show signs of exhaustion and/or extension.
The Charts
SPY is positive to start the week despite moving sharply off the highs. Today’s candle signals indecision. Perhaps unsurprising given the shake-up from the weekend events. Short-term momentum is still intact as it trades above all key moving averages and hovers near highs and the Fibonacci extension.
QQQ has day three wrestling with its 8-day MA. A move lower to test the 21-day MA and the pivot area near $487 would not be surprising.
IWM continues its surge, rising another 1.90% and well beyond the pivotal $212 area. The rotation into small caps continues.
DIA is above the previous high of $401 with no resistance above. It is extended from the 8 & 21-day MAs, with and RSI over 73. Some rest could be coming.
TLT is back between the 8 and 21-day MAs, regrouping before the next move. RSI is 51.53 while the 50-day MA tries to cross the 200-day.
DXY gets a slight bounce while remaining below the $103.965 pivot.
BTCUSD Bitcoin added to the weekend gains, powering through the 21 and 200-day MAs and reaching the 50-day MA.
The Trade
The small-cap trade continues to work, offering chances to reduce position sizes while booking profits. While it is nice to take some profits in positions that work so well, it's important to remember that this move is coming out of a very long base and could have much more to go.
The next extension level to target is $224.38, which would put it back near the middle of the previous, very long consolidation range dating back to 2021-22.
We’ll keep refining the shopping list for large-cap stocks. Several Mag 7 names (AMZN, MSFT, NVDA) are testing their 21-day MAs. Many other recent leaders are taking a break or showing signs that they may do so soon.
Watching, waiting, preparing.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), an SEC-registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.
Statements in this article represent that person’s opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.
Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual, or it may reflect some other consideration. Readers of this article should consider this when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.
All investments are subject to the risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, or other qualified investors before making any investment decision.
POSITION DISCLOSURE
July 15, 2024, 4:00 PM
Long: n/a
Short: n/a
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Ticker, Date, Call/Put, Strike Price
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