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September 30, 2022 Weekend Market Review/Preview

www.trading-adventures.com

September 30, 2022 Weekend Market Review/Preview

Ian and Fiona weren’t the only storms brewing this week

Andrew Moss, CMT
Sep 30, 2022
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September 30, 2022 Weekend Market Review/Preview

www.trading-adventures.com

Welcome to the end of the week, the month, and the quarter.

If you're a new reader, first of all - Thank you!  Take a minute to subscribe now.

And while you're at it why not forward this to a few friends?

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Hurricane Week!

Fiona hit Puerto Rico and Ian hit Florida. I hope all of you and your families are safe and relatively undamaged. Sadly, I know many are not.

Ian and Fiona weren’t the only storms brewing as the market felt a bit precarious coming into the week. The indexes tried to hold up but weakened into the close today. Not a great end to the week/month/quarter.

Each day that we don’t make upward progress is a day that adds fuel to the bearish fire.

The market

So far the 'bounce' still leaves much to be desired. Price action just isn’t supporting that story. In fact, the indexes have been in a bearish consolidation pattern, working off the downside extension and allowing the short-term moving averages to catch up (down?) to price. That looks more like continuation than reversal.

The overall trend is still down. While a bounce would be very welcomed by the bulls…

Bounce possibilities laid out

  • here - Could We See a bounce?

  • and here - A Look at Mid-Term Election Years)

…not only does it feel like a long shot, but it would still be a counter-trend move and would need to be treated as such.

Here are the charts-

SPY 0.00

Not a bullish finish to the week

QQQ 0.00

Also looks vulnerable

IWM 0.00

A possible bear flag pattern here gives a measured move target of around the $144 price area.

$DXY

The Dollar did come down this week which gave the bulls some hope. So far it hasn’t been enough.

$VIX

Implied volatility is still elevated and may want to go higher still.

Bull and bear case

The bull and bear case here is very simple.

  • Do we break above this potential island bottom, stay above, and move higher?

  • Or do we break down from the bearish consolidation and keep going lower?

Flushing into the close on Friday isn’t bullish.

Next week I'll be watching $SPY 372.30 on the upside. Seems like a tall order.

On the downside, with prices below the June lows, we have to look even further for potential support. The pre-covid high in the area of 340 could be a spot.

I’ll post weekly and monthly charts tomorrow morning on Twitter for a bigger-picture view.

What I'm reading (and listening to)

Stanley Druckenmiller on How Leaders Lead with David Novak

From the intro: during his 30 years managing money for investors, he had an average annual return of 31%. And he NEVER had a down year. So if you’re even a little interested in finance, you’re going to learn a lot from Stan – including some really practical investment advice and his take on the future of our economy.

Bob Dylan on the Founders Podcast

Ok, not actually Bob Dylan. But David Senra talking about Bob Dylan.

We all know Dylan, the ubiquitous songwriter. What I didn't know is that he won a Pulitzer Prize for his own autobiography. A work for which he didn't even have an editor!

For someone who's written so many stories into songs, he must have a fascinating story of his own life. Right? He certainly does. I always enjoy artist and musician biographies, and I got this book many years ago but for some reason never read it. David Senra and his Founders Podcast struck again this week. I will read the book soon.

From Twitter

click for the full images

This one got lots of hits

Twitter avatar for @Andy__Moss
Andrew Moss, CMT @Andy__Moss
Discipline and process first. Results second. @TradingComposur
Image
12:47 PM ∙ Sep 26, 2022
122Likes19Retweets

I just wrote about this.

Things that have never happened before happen almost every day in the stock market.

Twitter avatar for @TechCharts
Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts
#GOLD was supposed be an inflation hedge #BITCOIN was going to the moon when everything collapsed $DXY was toilet paper due to massive printing The list goes on...
Twitter avatar for @TechCharts
Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts
In financial markets always: Expect the unexpected. Have a plan for the unexpected.
6:43 AM ∙ Sep 28, 2022
327Likes46Retweets

Tough market.

Twitter avatar for @bclund
Brian Lund @bclund
People selling stocks right now are going to be sorry in 10 years. People buying stocks right now are going to be sorry in 10 minutes.
1:39 PM ∙ Sep 23, 2022
257Likes14Retweets

The most volatile year for oil in the last 30.

And remember in 2020 the price of a barrel of crude went NEGATIVE!

Twitter avatar for @chigrl
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl
This year has swen the most volatile crude #oil prices in more than 30 years
Image
12:06 PM ∙ Sep 25, 2022
279Likes47Retweets

There is no holy grail. You are the secret ingredient.

Twitter avatar for @SJosephBurns
Steve Burns @SJosephBurns
New traders focus too much on offense and too little on defense.
Image
11:15 AM ∙ Sep 25, 2022
208Likes28Retweets

You must create your own system

Twitter avatar for @TraderDivergent
The Divergent Trader | Alan Edward @TraderDivergent
Find what works for you. It’s important to be compatible with a strategy that fits to your personality and risk appetite. A strategy is personal and should be moulded to the trader. Take the templates from others but adapt it to you.
12:07 PM ∙ Sep 29, 2022
233Likes35Retweets

Currencies

Twitter avatar for @harmongreg
Greg Harmon, CMT/CFA, President Dragonfly Capital @harmongreg
If you are not following currency moves and just equities then you are missing the drivers of flows. This is a major global reset.
2:30 AM ∙ Sep 26, 2022
74Likes10Retweets

Twitter avatar for @BearBullTraders
Andrew Aziz @BearBullTraders
A historic moment in the world economy: 1 USD = 1 EUR = 1 GBP
Image
6:13 PM ∙ Sep 27, 2022
254Likes73Retweets

Finally, a wild story about alleged fraud, whistleblowers, and corporate espionage.

Twitter avatar for @HindenburgRes
Hindenburg Research @HindenburgRes
Trevor Milton, billionaire founder of $NKLA, is currently on trial for fraud. Shortly after his hydrogen truck company was exposed, an army of hackers and spies started targeting his critics and whistleblowers. Here's what happened & how we turned the tables. (1/x)
6:45 PM ∙ Sep 29, 2022
2,375Likes551Retweets

Anything else?

Be sure to join me tomorrow morning on Twitter for Monthly Charts. It's always nice when the monthly candles close on a Friday with the weeklies. #chart-nerd

Thanks always for reading, subscribing, and sharing with your friends and family. 

I hope you have a fantastic weekend.

Cheers.


***This is NOT financial advice. NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”) a SEC registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC.  All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.

Statements in this article represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.   

It is possible that Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed.  This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration.  Readers of this article should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.

All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions.  Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified investors prior to making any investment decision.   

Please Note: short puts are synthetic longs, and short calls are synthetic shorts

Options symbols are denoted as follows:

Ticker, Date, Call/Put, Strike Price

Example: VXX1218C30 = VXX 12/18 Call with a $30 strike

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September 30, 2022 Weekend Market Review/Preview

www.trading-adventures.com
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