The Markets
The inauguration is behind us, the new administration is in place, and one more layer of uncertainty has been removed from the markets.
If you’ve been following along, this recent market action played out almost exactly as outlined in the Jan. 11 Weekly Chart thread: —
SPX dip to the August 4th AVWAP early in the week and then rally into the inauguration.
Here’s the exact chart from that post. The August AVWAP was 5777, and the low for that Monday was 5773 — pretty spot on.
The subsequent rally has carried prices back to recent highs and beyond, with SPX closing at a new all-time high today.
This isn’t about taking a victory lap—it’s about demonstrating how technical analysis can provide clarity in uncertain times. While no one can predict the markets with absolute certainty, having a proven framework can help you navigate with confidence.
Hopefully, these Market Updates have been helping to keep you headed on the right course. If so, please consider supporting this page with a paid subscription.
The Charts
SPY logged a new closing high after jumping nearly 6% in just eight trading days. Not only is it back over the recent pivot high, but also all of the key moving averages and the trendline from September. Momentum is back, and now we’re back to watching pivots, MAs, and AVWAPs for potential support as they follow along underneath.
QQQÂ is back to the trendline, and after a brief reprieve yesterday, it puts in an engulfing candle today, pushing the Bollinger Bands higher and looking primed to hit new highs soon. It may not cross $539.15 in a straight line from here, as it is already up +6.5% in eight days. If it wants a rest, the confluence of the 8,21, and 50-day MAs all near ~$517-$519 would be a logical area to visit.
IWM is finding its way between the $226.69 pivot and the 50-day MA. A move that crosses over the latter would give space to run on toward recent highs, which are still roughly 6% above. Underneath, the 8-day MA has crossed above the 21-day MA and both are rising to indicate a return of momentum.
DIA has been especially strong during this bounce, led by good earnings from banks and favorable moves in equipment makers such as CAT and DE. Price finished the day above the Nov. pivot high, and all key moving averages are beneath the price. A few days of consolidation before making new highs would not be surprising.
TLT took the day off, falling back to the 8 and 21-day MAs after several days of higher action. More positive action resulting in a cross of the 8 over the 21 is needed now. Otherwise, falling bond prices (and therefore rising interest rate yields) could reassert as pressure on stocks.
DXY has moved mostly lower over the same eight days, during which stocks have risen. RSI is back below 50, and we are very close to a bearish cross of the short-term moving averages.
BTCUSD keeps surfing the channel. It won’t break down, but it also doesn’t hurry to make new highs and keep them. This choppiness has frustrated many traders. We’re better served to focus on the bigger-picture move mapped out in the weekly chart.Â
The Trade
It’s been a strong week for active traders, with plenty of setups delivering solid gains. Here are just a few highlights from Monday’s Market Prep video:
• ASAN: Held support and worked on clearing the 21-day MA.
• CAVA: Broke over resistance, adding $3 so far this week.
• MRVL: Continued its climb, closing at a new high today.
• RDDT: Hit a new high Tuesday, with a $15 move from low to high.
If you caught these setups and made them your own, congratulations! It’s always great to see subscribers turning insights into profits.
If you missed out, don’t worry—there’s always another opportunity just around the corner. With a premium subscription, you’ll gain access to actionable, in-depth market prep videos and the tools you need to stay ahead of the curve.
Ready to make the next move yours? Try a premium subscription now.
Rather have an options idea?
After the monstrous earnings report Tuesday evening and the subsequent stock jump yesterday, David, Kira, and I spotted the opportunity as NFLX pulled back. We opened calls late yesterday and locked in profits this morning with a fast, winning trade.
In at $7.85 near the end of the day yesterday, out at $13.50 this morning. That's a 72% gain overnight!
Want to catch the next big move? Join subscribers and stay ahead:
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The Inner Circle
The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. I’ve been working and trading with this group since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.