Start easy, then back off.
Good practice in running, and the markets
That's the advice my friend Tim gave me about trail running. It may not sound like the way to win a race. But it's good advice. Not that I can prove it in racing. When it comes to running I'm much more focused on finishing the race, than on winning. However, when going long distances, up and down hills, and over rough terrain, clearly it's smart to pace yourself.
The market needs to do the same thing. We don't have to look back very far to see the meme stonks that sprinted out of the gate only to end up injured and hobbling later in the race.
How does all this relate to the market?
I'd say this week it was; "Start strong, finish.....meh."
After an explosive start to the week that was checking all the boxes and making the bulls charge ahead, the major indexes turned quickly and headed south. Now the questions; was it a countertrend rally? Or is this just a normal pause before it runs higher next week?
Here's what I see -
The good news is that even after giving back some gains, the SP500 still leaves our boxes checked.
Closed the week at 4500.53 so it's nicely above the 4278 level I pointed out.
Still above the 200 day moving average too.
It never feels as good when the week closes weaker. Though as we know, the market doesn't care how we feel. That said, I don't feel that its all bullishness and green days from here.
Here's why -
QQQ and IWM still have work to do.
Both are below the major moving averages; 8/21/50/200 on the daily charts.
The IWM is still well below the year + long sideways range.
The one interesting occurrence here is that buyers showed up at the Covid low anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP - thick black line on the chart above). This indicator never ceases to fascinate me, especially when anchored to very significant highs or lows.
Next week I'll be watching for the indexes to:
SPX -- stay above the 200 day moving average
QQQ and IWM -- stay above Monday's low, then make progress toward getting back above the 8 and 21 day moving averages
If we test and fail to hold Monday's lows a trip back to the recent previous lows seems likely.
***This is NOT financial advice. NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.