Still Calm, Still Climbing
Market holds Monday’s gains as semis, software, and biotech rotate higher
The Markets
Markets extended Monday’s relief rally following the ceasefire announcement out of the Middle East. While geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, price action showed continued willingness to rotate back into risk-on assets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each posted modest gains, while the Nasdaq Composite led thanks to strong showings in semiconductors and software. Breadth remained constructive, and a noticeable shift toward higher-beta sectors suggested improving investor appetite.
The Charts
SPY gapped higher and ran to the upper Bollinger Band. The all-time high is inches away now, with plenty of room above in the RSI and the shorter-term 8 and 21-day MAs following prices closely. Not extended. Not overbought. Just strong.
QQQ also gapped and ran, coming within 11 cents of its all-time high. Like the previous chart, there is room for RSI to move higher before reaching overbought status, and the 8 and 21-day MAs aren’t far below.
IWM wants another look at the 200-day MA, which is just a dollar away. The above move would coincide with a pivot level breakout and should signal significant improvement in the small-cap index.
DIA gapped up to the ~$428 pivot and moved further ahead. There is potential for a brief stop near $432, which should be followed by $440 in the coming days or weeks. Also notable is that the volume of the Dow 30 has been above average lately. That has not been the case for the other three index ETFs.
TLT had a large outside day, moving well over the 50-day MA and closing above the upper Bollinger Band. Above $88 is the 100-day MA and a pivot level — the points of reference higher. These levels could act as magnets if bond momentum continues.
DXY DX1! US Dollar futures are the only negative chart today, falling nearly half a percent while everything else went up. The lower grind continues.
BTCUSD After testing the pivot low AVWAP over the weekend, Bitcoin appears poised for a breakout. Price is peaking over the trendline as this is being written. A confirming move could take it back to $112k rather quickly. But this is Bitcoin, which has earned its reputation for choppiness and fake-outs. So we’ll wait for confirmation.
The Trade
With Monday’s gap holding and key sectors showing rotation, the strategy remains the same: stay focused, stay patient, and trade from structure.
Many names are extended after strong two-day moves, so chasing breakouts carries added risk. Instead, the best opportunities may come from clean pullbacks into anchored levels, rising MAs, or prior breakout zones.
The leaders are still leading. That’s where attention should stay — but only if entries line up.
“When everyone sees it, we don’t get cute — we let the pressure do its work.”
This remains a market that rewards preparation over prediction. Have your levels ready. The next trade is always forming.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
