Still Waters, Clear Signals
While major indexes digest gains, key clues are beginning to emerge beneath the surface.
The Markets
The total market continues to hold ground just below new highs. ITOT tells the story cleanly—breakout, pause, no real damage. Volume has been slightly below average, but nothing alarming. Signals still matter.
The Charts
ITOT – iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF
This isn’t a chart I typically feature, but there’s good reason to spotlight it today.
ITOT holds over 3,500 names and is designed to track virtually the entire U.S. equity market—including large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks. So when it breaks out or rolls over, it tells a fuller story than any one sector or index alone.
The first chart shows the classic view—moving averages, RSI, and DeMark signals—highlighting the recent breakout and a couple days of digestion.
Bullish trend, making new highs, hitting an RSI of > 70, and then pulling back slightly to test the 8-day MA.
But the second chart shows something more instructive.
By hiding most of the standard indicators and layering in AVWAPs from key pivot lows, we see a visual demonstration of something called the AVWAP Handoff. Credit goes, of course, to Brian Shannon, CMT — Mr. AVWAP.
This occurs when price action and trend strength allow one anchored VWAP to "hand off" control to the next—from one significant pivot low to the next higher low. As price continues to hold above each prior AVWAP, the newer one becomes the active reference point for traders and algorithms alike. It's a way of tracking sustained accumulation and the layered footprints of institutional buyers.
What this chart tells us: buyers continue to show up at higher and higher AVWAP levels. And until that changes, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls.
Same general picture, just with some different supporting evidence. Note the two forms of potential support at ~$134.50 — a pivot high from December ‘24, and an AVWAP from the last pivot low.
Now, two more ‘usual’ charts.
DXY DX1! U.S. Dollar Futures have tried to stop the bleeding but found resistance today at the confluence of a pivot and the 21-day MA.
BTCUSD — Bitcoin continues its high level, tight consolidation and appears to be hinting at new highs soon. TBD.
Finally, the chart perhaps making the most headlines: TSLA.
Elon Musk, for all his brilliance, is not doing Tesla stock any favors with his X-posting and political antics. So far this week, he has launched a new political party (The America Party), claimed that Steve Bannon is in the Epstein files, and told prominent Wall Street analyst Dan Ives to “Shut up!” The stock remains stuck while other megacaps stretch.
Elon dabbles while shareholders pay the price.
The Trade
Later this week, I’ll break down one of my favorite tools for identifying when a move is really out of gas.
How I use it. Why it works. And what to do when you see it.
This is a real-world trade setup that I use frequently.
Stay tuned.
(And make sure you’re subscribed so you don’t miss the drop.)
P.S. — Fun fact: The cover photo (visible on the homepage) was taken on a Colorado hike last summer, with Brian Shannon.
No markets. No charts. Just two traders catching up in the mountains.
Bonus: Look closely and you’ll spot his dog, ZZ, roaming on the rocks.
If you’re reading this in email - click here to view the image — Trading Adventures Home
Looking For More?
Elevate Your Trading Adventure Even Further With These Offerings.
EpicTrades Options Newsletter
Real-time trade ideas and insights, providing actionable trading insights focusing on options trades with short-term horizons, aiming to capitalize on weekly market movements.
The approach includes detailed reasoning for trades, specific options, and profit targets. It focuses on quick gains with a minimal time commitment from subscribers.
The Inner Circle
The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. I’ve been working and trading with this group since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.
Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.
Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.
The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
