Summer Heat - Steady Melt
Markets shake off overnight shocks and keep grinding higher. With CPI behind us, PPI released, and buyers still showing up — the uptrend holds firm.
The Markets
The summer heat is here — and so is the melt-up.
After a soft CPI reading on Wednesday, futures surged. Then came PPI on Thursday, which stayed in check. And despite geopolitical headlines from the Middle East that triggered a quick sell-off in overnight futures, the dip was shallow and short-lived.
Just like it has been for weeks.
By Thursday's open, buyers stepped back in. And by midday, indexes had reclaimed nearly all of the losses. SPY and QQQ hovered just under highs. DIA and IWM continue to improve. The rotation remains healthy, and dips continue to get scooped up — almost immediately.
Breadth? — It’s still expanding.
Internals? — Stable.
News cycle? — No shortage of reasons to sell, but sellers still can’t gain traction.
The takeaway: This is classic melt-up behavior. Slow, steady, and relentless upside — even in the face of surprise headlines.
The Charts
SPY nicked the 8-day MA and cruised back higher. RSI is a moderate-but-strong ~66, volume is average, the Bollinger Bands are opening higher, and all the key moving averages are beneath the price.
QQQ Ditto. Seriously. They don’t always do this, but for now, SPY and QQQ are doing almost exactly the same thing. QQQ is a little closer to a new high, RSI is a little higher - 68, and volume is a little lighter than average. But otherwise, it is the same action as SPY.
IWM found sellers at its 200-day MA. But every other key moving average is below the price. One more hurdle to clear.
DIA is slowly and methodically chipping away at the ~$428 pivot as the 8-day MA provides the floor for today’s trading.
TLT has actually strung together a series of four consecutive higher days and hit its 50-day MA. While that is happening, the 8-day MA is quietly rising up and away from the 21-day MA, which is also sloping upward. We haven’t seen that in a couple of months.
DXY Dollar futures gapped lower and sold off sharply, going well below the pivot from April and opening the door for even lower prices. RSI isn’t yet oversold at 33, and volume has been nearly double the average for two days straight.
BTCUSD is continuing its habit of choppiness and misdirection and is now in the process of dragging the 21-day MA down below the 8-day MA. Without a quick, decisive pop, we’ll be left to watch for more sideways-to-down action this summer.
The Trade
This week’s trade environment has been forgiving — for the prepared. (Like EpicTrades and the recent MDB position. More on that coming soon.)
That’s the key: Preparation.
The best setups continue to work — not always right away, and not always cleanly, but well enough for anyone with a plan. Anchored VWAP levels, disciplined entries, a tier system, and a trim-and-trail mindset are still the right tools for this tape.
Most days aren’t filled with big moves. But they are filled with moments.
So if you missed a move, be patient. If you’re holding a winner, manage it with care. And if you’re uncertain, wait for the next clean setup — they continue to emerge day after day.
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The Disclosures
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