Testing In Progress

Market Update for Thursday April 25, 2024

Apr 25, 2024

Monday, SPY closed on the year-to-date anchored VWAP.
Today, SPY opened on the year-to-date anchored VWAP.

The testing continues.

Nothing in the key indexes has changed much so far this week. Under the surface, there have been some big moves: TSLA is up on earnings, META is down on earnings, and AMZN, GOOGL, and NVDA are moving around in sympathy. Those moves have supplied some choppiness for SPY and QQQ.

But overall, the situation remains mostly unchanged ahead of tomorrow’s PCE data.

While there isn’t much happening on the surface, we can zoom in a little closer to find trade opportunities and clues about what may come next.

This 30-minute chart shows the intraday levels and how important they can be.

Notice the repeated action at certain levels. $506 has been resistance for SPY.

QQQ has struggled to get back above the year-to-date anchored VWAP.

The Charts

SPY is still in the process of testing the YTD AVWAP. The 21 and 50-day MAs have come together near $511. Getting back over that level will pass the test and possibly allow for a move back to the $524.61 pivot high.

Below, last week’s pivot low is the next potential support. And beyond that there is a lot of room down to the 200-day MA and the Dec. ‘24 pivot low of $466.43.

QQQ was rejected at the YTD AVWAP yesterday. Today’s gap down gave room for a rise back over the 8-day MA. $412.92 is an important pivot level below, which has already provided support once.

Above, $429, $434, and $436 should be watched.

IWM is bouncing around between the swing low AVWAP and the YTD AVWAP. The 8 and 21-day MAs are beyond that space above, and the 200-day MA is below.

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DIA is lower today on industrial weakness. It is below all the key moving averages except the 200-day. The swing low AVWAP is near $374, for potential support.

TLT continues to drift lower toward the $85-$86 gap.

DXY US Dollar futures are forming a bullish consolidation pattern after the strong move higher. A breakout here would take it back to the pivot highs at $107.05

BTCUSD Bitcoin is still riding the breakout AVWAP, trying to gather support for a run at recent highs.

The Trade

Rate cut hopes for this year are all but gone. That’s adding pressure to stocks. However, tomorrow’s PCE will likely dictate the market's movement over the next week or so. Light inflation data should continue to have a positive effect.

We’ll see what the data shows and then take directional cues from the market.

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The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), an SEC-registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.

Statements in this article represent that person’s opinions only and do not necessarily reflect those of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.

Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual, or it may reflect some other consideration. Readers of this article should consider this when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.

All investments are subject to the risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, or other qualified investors before making any investment decision.

POSITION DISCLOSURE

April 24, 2024, 4:00 PM

Long: AMZN0503C170, IMNM, PENN0503C35, RILY0503C35

Short:

Options symbols are denoted as follows:

Ticker, Date, Call/Put, Strike Price

Example: VXX1218C30 = VXX 12/18 Call with a $30 strike