Walmart Drags Dow as Tariff Clock Ticks
Retail Giant’s Soft Outlook Signals Consumer Crunch
The Markets
Markets are a tug-of-war today as a retail red flag battles bull resilience.
Walmart (WMT) dropped -6.5% after a grim 2025 outlook sparked a broader market slide. The retail titan beat Q4 earnings with $0.66 EPS (above $0.65 consensus), but slowing sales growth hinted at a consumer slowdown amid tariff threats and sticky inflation.
The stock does have several layers of potential support close by in a pivot at $96.18, the 50-day MA near $95.67, and the anchored VWAP from the last EPS report at $94.50.
By noon, the Dow had shed 600 points (-1.5%), and SPY and QQQ pulled back from record highs.
Yesterday’s Fed minutes further fueled the fire as policymakers signaled no rate cuts soon, citing tariff-driven inflation risks. Trump’s 25% Canada/Mexico tariffs loom Saturday, yet markets trimmed losses as delay rumors swirled.
$BTCUSD danced over $98k but has been unable to break free of the consolidation range.
Before we get to the charts, I spent yesterday with friends talking about charts, markets, and trades. You can check it out on YouTube. The discussion lasted about 20 minutes, during which we looked at charts and discussed ideas about energy, healthcare, AI, and more.
Follow them both on X/Twitter — @MoneyMitch_TTP and @MichealNaUssCMT
Also, Michael Nauss CMT has a great page here at Stats Edge Trading. Click his name (in blue), or find the link in the “Recommendations” section of www.trading-adventures.com.
The Charts
SPY rallied off the morning's lows to find a closing price above the $609.96 pivot. Dips continue to be bought.
QQQ also got a rally but couldn’t quite get over the pivot.
IWM Resistance wins again, as IWM did not get the rally memo. The small-cap index did get a slight bounce after touching the lower Bollinger Band, but it still looks vulnerable as it is further below the 8/21/50-day MAs.
DIA suffered at the hands of WMT’s sharp earnings selloff. The $444.87 pivot and the 8/21-day MAs kept a lid on things at the open, and the industrial index closed down nearly -1% on the day. The Bollinger Bands are tight now, and RSI is testing the halfway mark. A quick rebound is needed, or more downside could be on the way.
TLT was up slightly but didn’t move far from the pivot and the 8/21 50-day MAs. A move above $90 continues to be a key factor for this group of treasury bonds.
DXY The Dollar stayed out of the way of stocks, dipping from pivot resistance and moving toward the next line at $105.40.
BTCUSD is positive but still within the confines of the lengthening consolidation area.
The Trade
WMT’s report is the latest reminder that earnings continue to be challenging.
In addition to the company’s consumer caution, the Fed’s stubbornness on rates adds pressure. Saturday’s tariff deadline looms like a storm cloud—25% on Canada/Mexico could hit autos and retail hard. However, the buzz of another delay offers some hope.
Large caps show their resilience, while the Industrials and Small-Cap markets are bruised but not busted.
The next moves hinge on clarity.
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