The Markets
Markets are a tug-of-war today as a retail red flag battles bull resilience.
Walmart (WMT) dropped -6.5% after a grim 2025 outlook sparked a broader market slide. The retail titan beat Q4 earnings with $0.66 EPS (above $0.65 consensus), but slowing sales growth hinted at a consumer slowdown amid tariff threats and sticky inflation.
The stock does have several layers of potential support close by in a pivot at $96.18, the 50-day MA near $95.67, and the anchored VWAP from the last EPS report at $94.50.
By noon, the Dow had shed 600 points (-1.5%), and SPY and QQQ pulled back from record highs.
Yesterday’s Fed minutes further fueled the fire as policymakers signaled no rate cuts soon, citing tariff-driven inflation risks. Trump’s 25% Canada/Mexico tariffs loom Saturday, yet markets trimmed losses as delay rumors swirled.
$BTCUSD danced over $98k but has been unable to break free of the consolidation range.
Before we get to the charts, I spent yesterday with friends talking about charts, markets, and trades. You can check it out on YouTube. The discussion lasted about 20 minutes, during which we looked at charts and discussed ideas about energy, healthcare, AI, and more.
Follow them both on X/Twitter — @MoneyMitch_TTP and @MichealNaUssCMT
Also, Michael Nauss CMT has a great page here at Stats Edge Trading. Click his name (in blue), or find the link in the “Recommendations” section of www.trading-adventures.com.
The Charts
SPY rallied off the morning's lows to find a closing price above the $609.96 pivot. Dips continue to be bought.
QQQ also got a rally but couldn’t quite get over the pivot.
IWM Resistance wins again, as IWM did not get the rally memo. The small-cap index did get a slight bounce after touching the lower Bollinger Band, but it still looks vulnerable as it is further below the 8/21/50-day MAs.
DIA suffered at the hands of WMT’s sharp earnings selloff. The $444.87 pivot and the 8/21-day MAs kept a lid on things at the open, and the industrial index closed down nearly -1% on the day. The Bollinger Bands are tight now, and RSI is testing the halfway mark. A quick rebound is needed, or more downside could be on the way.
TLT was up slightly but didn’t move far from the pivot and the 8/21 50-day MAs. A move above $90 continues to be a key factor for this group of treasury bonds.
DXY The Dollar stayed out of the way of stocks, dipping from pivot resistance and moving toward the next line at $105.40.
BTCUSD is positive but still within the confines of the lengthening consolidation area.
The Trade
WMT’s report is the latest reminder that earnings continue to be challenging.
In addition to the company’s consumer caution, the Fed’s stubbornness on rates adds pressure. Saturday’s tariff deadline looms like a storm cloud—25% on Canada/Mexico could hit autos and retail hard. However, the buzz of another delay offers some hope.
Large caps show their resilience, while the Industrials and Small-Cap markets are bruised but not busted.
The next moves hinge on clarity.
Looking For More?
Elevate Your Trading Adventure Even Further With These Offerings.
EpicTrades Options Newsletter
Real-time trade ideas and insights, providing actionable trading insights focusing on options trades with short-term horizons, aiming to capitalize on weekly market movements.
The approach includes detailed reasoning for trades, specific options, and profit targets. It focuses on quick gains with a minimal time commitment from subscribers.
The Inner Circle
The Inner Circle is a Virtual Trading Floor (VTF) at T3 Live. I’ve been working and trading with this group since 2022. You may have noticed the logo in the watermarks on my charts.
Founded by David Prince and led by him, Rick March, and Kira Turner, the Inner Circle is a community of elite traders, including hedge fund managers, family office heads, corporate executives, financial advisors, and even professional poker players.
Fundamental, Macro, and Technical Analysis all combine to find and discuss the best opportunities in current markets.
The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.