Show notes:
This week brought a moderation in last week’s caution signals, but no decisive resolution. Major indices remain largely range-bound, with improving short-term price action in the S&P 500, mixed leadership beneath the surface, and healthy overall breadth. The market continues to digest prior gains while key leadership groups sort themselves out.
Key Takeaways
S&P 500 (SPY): Back above the 10-week moving average after multiple successful tests. Still trading within a range established since October 2025.
QQQ: Holding anchored VWAP from the June 2025 breakout but remains below declining 4- and 10-week MAs.
Dow (DIA): Bullish consolidation above rising shorter-term averages. Structure remains constructive.
Small Caps (IWM): High-level consolidation with rising 10-week MA and healthy RSI.
International Stocks: Continued strength and strong relative performance vs. U.S. equities.
Bonds: Firm after upside move; moving averages aligned constructively.
Commodities: Breakout remains intact; gold holding well. Oil improving but not yet in a confirmed uptrend.
Bitcoin: Bearish consolidation with heavy-volume breakdown still unresolved.
Leadership: Semiconductors strong; software weak. MAG-7 mixed. NVIDIA earnings are a near-term catalyst.
Breadth: Approximately two-thirds of S&P stocks remain above 50- and 200-day MAs—participation remains solid.
Risk Appetite: Rotation toward lower volatility and value persists; growth remains under pressure.
Closing Statement
Overall, this remains a digestion phase with solid underlying participation but uneven leadership. The improvement from last week reduces immediate downside pressure, yet mixed signals warrant a measured, risk-aware approach as the market searches for its next directional move.
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