Summary
A low-volume week in the indexes masked a quiet rotation into safety. With fresh DeMark sell setups, a bid in bonds, and commodities rising, the next move could come fast. Here’s what the Big Picture charts reveal.
Good morning!
I’m back on the desk after a beautiful beach week with family. I stayed mostly disconnected from charts and markets — now it’s time to catch up.
It was a short trading week, and the price action was mostly quiet. But global politics made plenty of noise with escalating tensions in Iran.
Let’s dive into the Big Picture 📈Weekly Charts📉 and see what they’re telling us about the road ahead.
📊 Major Indices
S&P 500 (SPX)
Another tight-range week with an upper wick — some buyer fatigue. But trend support is intact:
5958 – Pivot
5821 – 40-week MA
5750 – 10-week MA & BB center
5672–5680 – AVWAPs 🟠
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
Still leading… but this week brought a DeMark 9 sell setup. Watch Monday’s open for confirmation.
504 – Fib extension
499–500 – 10 & 40-week MAs
486–489 – AVWAPs 🟠
Russell 2000 (IWM)
Inside week under resistance. Holding AVWAP🟠 support.
215 – 40-week MA
208 – Pivot high AVWAP🟠
203 – 50% retracement
202 – 10-week MA
198 – Pivot low AVWAP🟠
Dow Jones (DIA)
Still rangebound between pivot and MA levels.
428 – Resistance
425 – 40-week MA
417 / 409 – AVWAPs 🟠
415 – 10-week MA
Bitcoin (BTC)
Still boxed in: $102K–$109K. Waiting for resolution.
100,305 – 10-week MA
97,265 – AVWAP🟠
89,460 – 40-week MA
🌍 International & Macro
Global Equities ex-US (ACWX)
Confirmed reversal, now testing MAs and BB center.
58.30 – 10-week MA
57.68 – AVWAP🟠
55.60 – 40-week MA
China Large-Cap (FXI)
Still stuck below resistance.
35.15 – 10-week MA
34.15 – AVWAP🟠
33.04 – 40-week MA
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Slight bounce — still at the low end of the range.
99.26 – Pivot
99.33 – 10-week MA
🧮 Bonds
Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
Testing 40-week MA & AVWAP🟠 near 98.22
20+ Year Treasury (TLT)
Still suppressed under a falling 10-week MA
High-Yield Bonds (HYG)
Positive week, riding the trendline higher
🛢️ Commodities & Metals
Commodities Index (GSG)
Broke above 2-year range highs — watching for follow-through.
Crude Oil (USO)
Biggest weekly volume since April 2020. Key level: $83
Precious Metals (DBP)
Holding near highs with an inside week
📊 Breadth & Bullish Percent Indexes
% of SPX above 50 & 200-day MA continues to cool
BPNDX added to the column of Os
BPSPX & BPNYA unchanged
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🔄 Relative Strength
IWF/IWD and SPHB/SPLV = DeMark 9 sell setups
XLY/XLP = Still consolidating
🧠 Now What?
Stocks drifted while bonds, commodities, and the dollar all bounced.
Subtle rotation toward safety is underway — but it’s not full-blown risk-off… yet.
🔎 What to Watch This Week
Sell setup confirmation
Defensive follow-through
Fresh catalysts:
Powell testimony (Tues/Wed)
Bond auctions
PCE on Friday
✍️ ICYMI — 50 Years of Trading Lessons from Peter Brandt on the Words of Rizdom Podcast
This week, I shared some thoughts and notes on an excellent conversation from Peter Brandt and Words of Rizdom. Peter is a 50-year + trading veteran and generously shares his wealth of knowledge with all who are willing to listen and learn.
This is a great podcast episode, and I definitely suggest taking the time to listen to it yourself. Before you do —
📖 Read my take on it here:
🙏 Thanks for Reading
The response to this new format of the 📈Weekly Charts📉 continues to amaze me!
Many continued thanks to you all for the kind words. You keep reading and sharing, so I will keep hitting the ‘send’ button, delivering this in-depth weekly view straight to you and all your trading friends.
Don’t forget to:
Tap the ❤️ below
Share it with a trader you know
Reply and let me know what stood out
Until next time,
—Andy
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