Weekly Charts – August 2, 2025
SPX: Selling Arrives After the Warning
I’m away for the weekend with limited connection — but with so much happening, here’s a quick update.
For weeks, you’ve been reading a cautionary tone in these pages.
“Caution is warranted. Don’t overcommit.”
“The market is extended. Manage risk actively.”
“Breadth and internals are flashing early warning signs.”
Now, the selling has arrived — right into a flurry of major catalysts:
Fed decision
Mega‑cap earnings (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN)
PCE inflation data
Nonfarm payrolls
Where we are now:
SPX is about 2.5% off the highs, leaning on the 6147 pivot high.
Lose that, and we could see a quick drop into the 5800–5900 zone:
40‑week SMA
Anchored VWAPs
Bollinger Band midline
That’s roughly a -10% correction from the highs. A quick flush through that zone could shake out weak hands, satisfy the “correction” narrative, and set the stage for a recovery.
The tell we were watching for:
The S&P Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX) just flipped Bear Confirmed — the exact breadth signal I’ve been highlighting for weeks as the early caution light. It arrives right in sync with the seasonally weaker month of August.
Next week’s watchlist:
The heavy calendar continues — with earnings from PLTR, AMD, AMGN, MCD, DIS, UBER, LLY, TEAM, and more — plus key economic data:
ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI
Jobless Claims
UK rate decision
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No predictions.
No predictions. Just mapping logical paths.
Watch 6147 first. Then 5800–5900. That’s where the market will show its hand.
Thanks for reading and following along. Stay sharp, and I’ll see you next week.
Thanks, as always, for reading and following along.
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See you in the next update.
Andy
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