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Business as Usual
Weekend Market Review April 14, 2023
The Markets
Two weeks ago we were Shrugging Off:
Higher inflation
Higher interest rates
Federal Reserve tightening
The recent banking crisis
This week we’ve had the latest round of:
CPI
PPI
Jobless claims
Retail sales
Consumer sentiment
We’re still here. The market is still higher, and it’s proving its resilience.
Bank earnings are off to a good start with C and JPM up nicely on the day. This is giving a boost to one of several items we’re watching for overall market confirmation; XLF.
Another key ingredient for a sustainable move higher is the small-caps IWM.
From “Rest and Recharge” April 5, 2023
XLF looks very similar to IWM which has heavy exposure to the troublesome group of regional banks. This continues to be a red flag for stocks overall as bullish moves can be more difficult to sustain without bank participation.
https://twitter.com/Andy__Moss/status/1644357210347020291
IWM has roughly 15% exposure to “Financials.” Many of these are the smaller, regional banks. Those earnings reports will likely be very important. If they come in good, and the whole small-cap group can move higher, that should give a boost to the whole market.
The Charts
SPY has been keeping the momentum up and riding the 8-day higher.
QQQ with some consolidation just ahead of the $321.51 pivot could add fuel to the next move higher.
IWM seems like it wants to go higher but it just can’t quite do it yet.
DIA made the change from “broken” to “ok” look easy.
DXY The Dollar has continued lower in an orderly manner. It does have a potential reversal candle at previous support today. We’ll see how it behaves next week.
VIX ……
XLF is over the hump and the 50 and 200-day MAs will be the next test higher.
The Closing Bell
A mid-day dip showed that there was some profit-taking as we close the week. The large caps are holding above the 8-day MA so far and keeping the higher momentum. Earnings will continue next week and we’ll almost certainly get some surprises.
Keep an eye on the bigger picture through the earnings volatility and watch the components needed for the next move higher.
Weekend Weekly Charts will be fresh in the morning.
The Disclaimers
***This is NOT financial advice. NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
Andrew Moss is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”) an SEC registered broker/dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades placed by Mr. Moss are done through T3TG.
Statements in this article represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG.
It is possible that Mr. Moss may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Readers of this article should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinions being expressed.
All investments are subject to the risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Readers of this article should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants, or other qualified investors prior to making any investment decision.
POSITION DISCLOSURE
April 14, 2023, 4:00 PM
Long: AMZN0421C102, GOOGL0428C110, SCHW0412C55, QQQ0505P310
Short: GOOGL0428C120, QQQ0505P290
Options symbols are denoted as follows:
Ticker, Date, Call/Put, Strike Price
Example: VXX1218C30 = VXX 12/18 Call with a $30 strike