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Show notes:
For several weeks I’ve been pointing out subtle cracks developing beneath the surface of this market.
This week those cracks widened.
SPY broke meaningfully below its now-declining 10-week moving average, while QQQ is testing its 40-week. Leadership has faded as the Dow and small caps give up relative strength, and several overseas markets are beginning to roll over after strong advances.
Under the surface, participation is weakening as fewer stocks remain above key moving averages. At the same time, high-yield bonds have broken down and several leadership groups are showing signs of distribution.
There are still pockets of strength. Software (IGV), which I highlighted last week as a potential bounce candidate, rallied sharply and is now more than 15% off its recent lows. But the broader message from the charts is one of increasing caution as the market environment shifts.
In this week’s video we review:
The breakdown in SPY and the key levels to watch next
QQQ test of the 40-week moving average
Weakening leadership across indices and sectors
International markets and commodities
Breadth and participation signals
What this shift could mean heading into next week
Looking ahead, traders will be watching several key economic reports, including CPI on Wednesday and PCE on Friday, along with earnings from Oracle and Adobe.
The key takeaway: respect the trend, stay disciplined, and let price confirm the next move.
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