📈Weekly Charts📉 February 14, 2026
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Valentine’s Edition: Weekly Charts
Finding the Charts We Love — and the Trades That Love Us Back
Good morning,
It’s time for your Valentine’s Edition of Weekly Charts.
Let’s find the charts we love — and the trades that love us back.
Here we go.
S&P 500 — Too Easy, Right?
At first glance, the setup looks familiar.
From top to bottom, we can observe several similarities to prior inflection points:
RSI steadily declining
Price unable to reach and maintain new highs
Price below the 10-week moving average
A breached trendline
Expanding volume
Observation > prediction.
In my standard chart format, we also see:
Price below a declining 4-week moving average
Three tests in four weeks of the Bollinger Band centerline and the AVWAP from the November dip
Persistent resistance at the 1.618 extension
Repeated tests of resistance weaken it — until they don’t.
QQQ — Back to the Anchor
QQQ is now:
Below a declining 4-week moving average
Back to the June breakout AVWAP
In the lower half of flattening Bollinger Bands
RSI testing the midpoint near 50
Volume increasing
That’s a market at decision.
Meanwhile, the Dow continues to carry the torch.
DIA Dow Industrials — Leadership Remains
The Dow touched another new high this week.
Above all key moving averages
Moving averages rising in sequence
Bollinger Bands rising
RSI in bullish territory
Rotation, not collapse.
IWM Small Caps — Constructive Consolidation
Small caps are building a bullish consolidation pattern above key moving averages and anchored VWAP levels.
Still constructive.
ACWX — The Rest of The World
The Rest of the World continues to show strength:
Rising RSI
Rising price
Rising moving averages
Rising average volume
FXI — China
China tells a different story:
Below the 4-, 10-, and 40-week moving averages
Below trendline support
RSI below 50
Potential support sits near prior highs/lows, the 50% retracement, and the anchored VWAP from the April 2025 dip.
AGG TLT - Bonds
Bonds are gathering notable strength.
That aligns with the defensive rotation theme.
GSG — Commodities
Commodities are consolidating a breakout well, holding near a sharply rising 4-week moving average.
CL_F — Crude Oil Futures
Crude oil futures are back above a rising 40-week moving average.
GC_F SI_F — Gold and Silver Futures
Gold and silver are digesting record runs constructively.
Sector Rotation — Clear Divergences
IWD, XLP, RSP — Value, Staples, and Equal-Weight S&P are trending higher.
IWF, XLY, QQEW — Growth, Discretionary, and Equal-Weight Nasdaq 100 are trending lower.
Leadership is rotating — and it’s rotating defensively.
Relative Strength Ratios
IWF/IWD
Overbought and oversold readings in Growth vs. Value have often marked reaction levels — but rarely durable regime shifts.
XLY/XLP
Discretionary vs. Staples continues to tilt defensive.
SPHB/SPLV
High Beta vs. Low Volatility confirms that posture.
SPY/ACWX
U.S. vs. The Rest of The World has broken lower in what resembles a complex topping structure.
More Key Sectors
Semis, Software, and mega-cap growth
SOX, IGV, MAG7
Industrials, Materials, Utilities
XLI, XLB, XLU
Breadth & Participation
SPX % Above 50/200-day Moving Averages
The percentage of stocks above key moving averages remains elevated longer-term — but it turned lower this week.
Momentum in participation is slowing.
Bullish Percent Indices
BPSPX — Bull Confirmed.
BPNDX — Bear Correction.
BPNYA — Bull Correction.
Mixed signals.
Alignment is not clean.
Now What?
Last week, despite pressure and repeated tests, price was still above key levels and rising moving averages. That kept the benefit of the doubt with the bulls.
This week, that changed.
The benefit of the doubt is no longer automatic.
For months, SPY held above a rising 10-week moving average. That defined the uptrend.
Now we’re seeing:
Bonds strengthening
Risk-off ratios accelerating
Defensive sectors expanding
Repeated tests of resistance
Growth and discretionary breaking lower
QQQ leaning on a key anchored VWAP for a second week
The more times a level is tested, the more likely it gives way.
The Line That Defines the Trend
The recent SPY range highs define resistance.
Failure to get above them keeps pressure building.
Below last week’s low, the path opens toward:
The June breakout anchored VWAP
The rising 40-week moving average
That’s not prediction.
That’s structure.
If buyers reclaim control and growth rotates back into leadership, conditions improve quickly.
Until then:
Respect risk first.
Avoid style drift.
Trade the evidence.
Next Week’s Catalysts
Markets are closed Monday for President’s Day.
Key earnings: PANW, OXY, WMT.
Key data: ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Core PCE, GDP.
When structure is vulnerable, catalysts matter.
Volatility expands when support weakens.
If you missed it earlier this week, I reviewed QQQ’s flat range, key divergences, and the latest AI leadership in:
“Flat Markets, Divergent Trends, and AI Curiosity.”
Thanks for Reading
Thank you all for reading!
For a deeper dive, check out Chart School — lessons on breadth, relative strength, AVWAP, and more.
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Have a great weekend!
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Good ol’ Moss! I like those Bollinger bands too. I don’t see them often…