📈Weekly Charts📉 January 3, 2026
The First Signals of 2026
🔍 This Week’s Focus:
Zooming out for early-year clarity
Tracking rotation and participation
Watching for trend confirmation
Let’s dig in.
Reminder: click on the first chart to open a bigger view. Then use your arrows keys to scroll through all the images.😉
📊 U.S. Indexes
SPX
The S&P 500 continues to consolidate constructively after three strong weeks, holding above key support zones including the rising 4-week MA and AVWAP from the November low. RSI remains bullish at 62.
QQQ
Compression continues into a tight triangle just below the 1.618 extension. RSI is easing while price hovers between key MAs. A breakout from this coil could provide the next directional clue.
DIA
Still the leader. Trading near all-time highs with firm RSI and volume expansion — no signs of weakness here.
IWM
Small caps remain trapped in a long consolidation range. A failed breakout attempt in December now retests support and key moving averages. Momentum and participation are lacking, with RSI stuck in neutral territory.
🌍 International Equities
ACWX
Global participation broadens the trend. ACWX made consecutive new weekly closing highs on heavy volume. Price is above all key MAs, which are rising in sequence. RSI is strong and rising.
FXI
Even China perked up after slowly consolidating for several months. Support held, breakout move above trendline and MAs. RSI breakout would confirm a momentum shift. One to watch.
🏦 Bonds
AGG
Rangebound between a declining 10-week and rising 40-week MA.
TLT
Weak structure; price and RSI both fading.
HYG
Still compressed, but holding support with RSI > 50. No clear leadership here — just weight and indecision.
💵 U.S. Dollar
DXY
Inside week. Bearish consolidation below all key MAs. RSI remains below 50. No strength here — trend pressure remains down.
₿ Crypto Check
BTC
Still unable to get above the AVWAP from the August ‘24 breakdown. Structure remains boxed in. RSI not yet signaling strength. Needs a clear bid to change character.
🛢️ Commodities
DBP (Precious Metals)
Pulling back to its rising 4-week MA while RSI cools from stretched levels. Momentum pausing after a strong run.
DBB (Base Metals)
Surged three straight weeks on heavy volume. Price now testing a key reference level — the 61.8% retrace of the 2022–2024 decline. Momentum rotation in play.
🔼 Relative Strength Shifts 🔽
IWF / IWD: Rotation continues toward value
XLY / XLP: Leaned more defensive this week
SPHB / SPLV: Mostly steady at high levels
Shifts are notable, but no definitive trend change yet.
Relative Strength — What Is It? (Really) in the new Chart School section.
📊 Breadth & Internals
% of SPX stocks above 50- and 200-day MAs dipped slightly — no warning signs yet.
Bullish Percent Indices (BPSPX, BPNDX, BPNYA) hanging around, digesting recent rises.
Bullish Percent Indices:
Read this for a refresher:
🧭 Now What?
Short-Term
Markets are coiling and waiting. No clear signal yet, but plenty of setups are forming. The first full week of trading is often prone to chop and misdirection, as Friday’s action reminded us.
➡️ Does QQQ get a directional resolution from the consolidation pattern? And if so, which way?
Medium-Term
We’re still in a constructive environment — just not a runaway bull.
Rotation toward value, staples
Base metals showing strength
Market Breadth and RSI holding up, but not accelerating
➡️ If new leadership emerges and breadth expands again, the next leg up could follow.
Long-Term
Big picture remains positive, but selectivity matters.
Uptrends intact on weekly charts
Risk-on tone not broken
Defensive tilts creeping in — worth watching
➡️ Until we see breakdowns or major trend violations, it’s a “trust but verify” tape.
🗓 The Week Ahead
A lighter earnings calendar, but plenty of data:
ISM, PMI, JOLTS midweek
Friday = NFP Day — always a potential catalyst
Volatility could return. Stay nimble, stay curious.
🧠 Final Thought
The first full week of trading in a new year can be noisy — and we’re already seeing that with Friday’s action. Choppiness and misdirection are still very much in play.
Plenty of charts are shaping up, but we need confirmation. Does QQQ resolve its tightening consolidation soon — and in which direction?
That could be the tell.
🙌 Thanks for Reading
Thank you all for reading and spending some time with me on a Saturday morning!
For a deeper dive, check out Chart School — lessons on breadth, relative strength, ⚓️AVWAP, and more.
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—Andy
The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
The HYG compression with RSI holding above 50 is an underrated signal here. Most folks get caught up in waiting for breakouts, but that indecision you mentioned often precedes the real move once partcipation finally shows up. I've seen credit markets do this consolidation thing before major trend extensions, particularly when equities are rotating internally like they are now. The lack of clear leadership in high yield bonds might actually be a positive if it's just digesting gains while waiting for risk appetite to clarify. QQQ resolution could be the catalist.
Happy New Year, Andy! Thanks as always for the breakdown.
Should the Chart School link go to https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school?