Taking the analysis further
If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.
That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to current trade setups.
Summary
The major indices had a relatively quiet week, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting inside weekly candles. But beneath that apparent stability, several important markets experienced significant selling pressure.
Bitcoin continued its sharp decline, Treasury bonds reversed lower as yields climbed, and high-yield bonds remained vulnerable to a breakdown from their bearish consolidation.
Meanwhile, Nvidia suffered another difficult week, extending its decline to six consecutive weeks and nearly 40% from peak to trough. The stock is approaching important historical price levels, but a meaningful reversal has yet to be confirmed.
Interestingly, market breadth continues improving. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages increased again, reflecting continued participation in areas outside the largest growth-oriented companies.
Defensive positioning remains evident, with value outperforming growth, consumer staples showing relative strength, and lower-volatility stocks continuing to attract demand.
For swing traders, the environment remains challenging but not without opportunity.
In this week’s Weekly Charts, we examine the developing weakness in key markets, the continued divergence beneath the major indices, and the shorter-term roadmap for identifying improving conditions.
The approach for the week ahead remains straightforward: Stay selective, keep risk defined, and let price demonstrate that conditions are improving before increasing exposure.
Key Takeaways
Major indices consolidate. SPY and QQQ formed inside weekly candles, but remain beneath declining shorter-term moving averages. The slowdown in selling has not yet repaired the underlying technical damage.
Bitcoin remains under significant pressure. The sharp decline continued into Saturday, with price trading near $66,300 and below important moving averages and anchored VWAP levels.
Bonds reverse sharply lower. AGG and TLT experienced substantial selling, while Treasury yields moved higher. High-yield bonds remain vulnerable to further downside from a bearish consolidation.
Nvidia’s decline continues. Six consecutive declining weeks have left NVDA approximately 31–32% lower over that period and nearly 40% below its peak at the worst point. Potentially climactic selling may produce opportunities, but a sustainable reversal remains unconfirmed.
Defensive rotation persists. Relative-strength relationships continue favoring value over growth, consumer staples over discretionary, and low volatility over high beta.
Market breadth improves again. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages continues rising despite weakness in several important market leaders.
The roadmap remains mixed. Attempts to establish stronger short-term price structure have struggled. Higher highs and higher lows above rising 5-day moving averages would provide more constructive evidence.
Trading opportunities require selectivity. Focus on relative strength, maintain modest exposure, use clearly defined stops, and avoid chasing oversold rebounds without favorable risk/reward.
References & Chart Resources
Chart School
https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school
The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective
Relative Strength – What Is It Really?
Take the analysis further
If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.
That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to current trade setups.
Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.
