📈Weekly Charts📉 September 20, 2025
Momentum names soar to targets while leadership broadens. The question: rotation or exhaustion?
It’s been a big week!
Fed cut rates
Indices pushed to new highs
Small caps reclaimed leadership
And leaders kept pressing higher
Let’s take a look at the charts that matter most.
📊 U.S. Indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM)
Gets the starting spot this week with a new all-time high weekly close. It’s been a long road back to the $240s — a level that’s been resistance before. Volume was heavy this week. RSI not yet overbought. The question now — follow-through or another stall?
The next extension level higher doesn't come in until near ~$295s. Below, there is potential support near ~$229–$230, the 10-week MA and the AVWAP from the July test of support pivots and the 40-week MA.
S&P 500 (SPX)
$SPX extended its bounce from the 10-week MA, taking RSI > 70, and moving on high volume. 7000 and the 1.618 extension are getting closer.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
$QQQ with its 3rd week higher as well, nearing the upper Bollinger Band while taking the weekly RSI > 70 and into overbought status. Volume was also above average.
Dow Jones (DIA)
$DIA rounds out the perfect 4/4 week. RSI at 64 leaves plenty of room for more momentum, and the next extension is $504.22. Support could be found near $449–$451.
🌍 International
ACWX (All Country World ex‑US)
Moving overseas — $ACWX The Rest Of The World was up too, but with a potential topping candle in the form of a shooting star at the upper Bollinger Band. That's one sign of extension. On the other hand, the 10-week MA isn't that far below, and RSI is still below 70. This could pull back into the lower $60s from here, or push on towards the next extension level at $71.74.
FXI (China)
$FXI has a similar look, but with the added factor of a retracement level adding some resistance. RSI followed prices higher, while the DeMark 9 setup has proven to be (at least) a week early.
🧱 Bonds
High-quality bonds with a bit of an about-face this week. $AGG and $TLT reversed last week's breakout action. But high-yield buyers were still present, taking $HYG smoothly upward along the trend area.
AGG
TLT
HYG
💵 U.S. Dollar
$DXY / $DX1! The Dollar showed signs of life with a strong reversal off the pivot, leaving a very long lower shadow on this weekly candle. There should be plenty of resistance just above, so this is far from a decisive move. We'll see if price action confirms in coming weeks.
🛢️ Commodities
Rather than the usual look at the very energy-focused $GSG, we'll go straight to some specific areas, and add one new one for energy.
DBP — Precious Metals continue higher with resounding strength
DBB — Base Metals take a rest after last week's breakout
DBA — Agriculture moved sharply lower to a key potential support level, where price history, a trendline, and the 10/40-week MAs all come together.
DBE — Energy continues to grind sideways near the MAs and a key AVWAP.
₿ Crypto Check
Bitcoin (BTC)
What's it going to take for Bitcoin to move past this consolidation and on to the next extension near ~$155k? A good squeeze perhaps? The Bollinger Bands are about as tight as they’ve ever been in recent years, a condition that has often preceded higher moves.
Ethereum (ETH)
Still in a high-level bullish consolidation pattern. ~4867 is the pivot high and ~7300 is the extension level.
Solana (SOL)
Still working on the $260 pivot. The 1.618 extension is at $415.74. Note: the log scale makes this chart look different, so two versions are included.
Litecoin (LTC)
Keeps getting tighter and tighter holding the pivot, the 10-week MA, and the ATH AVWAP.
XRP
Small inside week between the 10-week MA and pivot low AVWAP.
🔁 Relative Strength & Participation
Value vs Growth: IWF vs IWD
Growth beat value for a 3rd week in a row. RSI is nearing 70 again. Interesting that rapid successive tests have resulted in additional pullbacks.
XLY vs XLP
SPHB vs SPLV
To learn more about Relative Strength, read this Chart School article:
🧠 Breadth
% Above 50/200 MA
$SPX screamed higher this week. But the % of stocks above a 50 and 200-day MA decreased.
Bullish Percent Indices (BPIs)
$BPSPX — no change in columns, though the count decreased slightly from last week.
$BPNDX — strengthened, adding to its column of Xs.
$BPNYA — holding steady.
🧭 Now What?
Short-Term
Late September into early October has a history of seasonal weakness — often one of the choppiest stretches of the year. With $SPX % above 50/200 MAs slipping even as indices push higher, we could see digestion or a shakeout before the next leg.
Medium-Term
The growth/value ratio ($IWF / $IWD) is leaning heavily toward growth again, but repeated overbought tests have led to pullbacks in the past. Combined with froth in momentum names — many ripping to lofty extension targets almost effortlessly — this raises the odds of mean reversion.
Long-Term
Despite froth, the primary trend remains higher. Rotation into small caps alongside mega-cap tech strength signals a broadening bull market. If seasonal chop passes without real technical damage, the setup into Q4 stays constructive.
🗓 The Week Ahead
Mon — No major catalysts — expect markets to digest OPEX flows.
Tue — Housing data (Existing Home Sales) — watch $XHB / $NAIL for reaction.
Wed — Fed speakers hit the circuit — tone/direction after last week’s cut will matter for rates/credit.
Thu — Jobless Claims + GDP revision — always potential for intraday chop.
Fri — PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge). This one can move markets into month-end.
Seasonality reminder: late Sept / early Oct = historically choppy tape. Layer macro catalysts on top and expect volatility spikes.
🧠 Final Thought
Momentum is strong, leadership is broadening, and buyers keep stepping up. But with OPEX behind us and late-September seasonality ahead, look out for a noisier tape. Respect the trend. Stay tactical.
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The Disclosures
***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.
