Taking the analysis further
If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.
That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.
Summary
Last week, the message from the charts was simple: slow down, stay selective, and make the market prove itself.
This week, parts of the market started to do exactly that.
The S&P 500 held support at its rising 10-week moving average, the Nasdaq produced a bullish engulfing reversal, semiconductors improved, and relative strength shifted back toward growth and high-beta stocks. But the improvement remains uneven. Breadth continued to deteriorate, equal-weight indexes remain under pressure, and the Dow, Russell, and financials are still lagging.
So the question isn’t whether the correction is officially over. It’s whether this week’s improvement can build into something more durable—and whether the market begins producing better opportunities with clearly defined risk.
Key takeaways
SPX: Held support at the rising 10-week MA and printed a weekly hammer.
QQQ: Strong bullish engulfing week and reclaimed the 4- and 10-week moving averages.
Roadmap: Nasdaq futures have shifted to higher highs/higher lows above a rising 5-day MA; S&P futures are attempting the same transition.
DIA / IWM: Continue to lag. Dow remains below a declining 5-day; Russell is testing the AVWAP from the late-March lows.
Relative strength: Meaningful shift back toward growth and high beta.
Semiconductors: Strong rebound and reclaimed moving averages, though the larger uptrend still needs confirmation.
MAG7: Continues to grind higher near its highs.
Equal weight: Still weaker than the cap-weighted indexes.
Breadth: Only 27.8% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day MA; 49.5% are above their 200-day MA.
Bullish Percent: S&P BPI fell to roughly 38%, moving closer to potential washout territory.
Bonds / yields: Pressure eased somewhat, but the larger trends have not materially repaired.
Crude / energy: Sharp weekly reversal after crude traded above $106.
Financials: Broke down through shorter-term weekly moving averages.
Bitcoin: Bullish engulfing week with resistance around the mid-$82,000s as the next important level.
Bottom line: Last week the market hadn’t earned additional risk. This week, some important areas are beginning to make their case.
References & Chart Resources
Chart School
https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school
The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective
Relative Strength – What Is It Really?
Take the analysis further
If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.
That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.
Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.
