Taking the analysis further
If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.
That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.
Key Takeaway
The market remains healthy beneath the surface, but rotation, failed follow-through, and uneven leadership are creating difficult trading conditions. The message is not to become aggressively bearish—it is to slow down, remain selective, and let price prove itself.
Show Notes
SPY gave back last week’s trendline breakout and is now testing the confluence of its four- and ten-week moving averages.
Hand-drawn trendlines are useful reference points, not precise barriers the market is obligated to respect.
QQQ remains choppy near recent support, while Dow and IWM continue to hold stronger longer-term trends.
Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization, including a positive RSI divergence, but still faces resistance overhead.
Bonds remain in established downtrends, with lower highs, lower lows, and declining moving averages.
Crude oil rebounded sharply but now faces an important test near overhead resistance.
Gold remains below declining moving averages, with risk still tilted lower despite nearby support.
Equal-weight participation remains generally healthy, but growth continues to lag value.
Defensive rotation remains evident as staples outperform discretionary stocks and low-volatility names outperform high beta.
Market breadth is still healthy beneath the surface, though Nasdaq participation remains mixed.
Semiconductors are consolidating after an extraordinary advance and have not yet produced a clear breakdown.
Biotech continues to digest its recent gains, while software remains directionless and difficult.
Apple remains strong, while Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla show varying degrees of indecision or weakness.
The broader market is not broken, but follow-through has become less reliable and quality setups are less plentiful.
The current environment favors patience, smaller expectations, and concentration on only the best opportunities.
References & Chart Resources
Chart School
https://www.trading-adventures.com/t/chart-school
The Bullish Percent Index – A Technician’s Perspective
Relative Strength – What Is It Really?
Take the analysis further
If you want to go beyond the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into real trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.
That’s where we review the markets in real time and walk through how the same principles are applied to actual trade setups.
Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.
